BOOM. The brooms have stayed out of the pantry on back-to-back articles. Let’s try to make it three in a row for this 15-game slate on Tuesday, August 13. Here are three of my favorite player prop predictions.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
BOOM. The brooms have stayed out of the pantry on back-to-back articles. Let’s try to make it three in a row for this 15-game slate on Tuesday, August 13. Here are three of my favorite player prop predictions.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 169-98 (63.2%)
Kikuchi isn’t the most efficient starter in terms of pitch count, however, in the right matchup he is more than capable of pitching into the sixth inning. Today he faces the Tampa Bay Rays, a roster he has tamed in the past. They have a combined .273 xwOBA and 39.1% K% across 87 plate appearances against him. Kikuchi faced them 10 days ago and recorded 17 outs while striking out 11. He has exceeded this line in 15 of his 24 starts this season.
This is E-Rod’s second start of the season, and there couldn’t be a better matchup for him. He draws the Colorado Rockies on the road, who have the highest K% (34.6%) and are 28th in wRC+ (72) against lefties over the past 30 days. Those rates are right along with their rankings on the season, and they are much worse away from Coors Field as well. The Rockies are very swing happy too, and have the second-highest swing% on the season, and fourth highest over the past months. Seven of the past eight lefties they have faced on the road have gone over this.
The real question comes down to how long Rodriguez will be out there for. He recorded 17 outs in his first start of the season, firing 65 pitches, while allowing four hits, and three earned runs against the Guardians. For the duration of his career, Rodriguez has consistently found quality start after quality start, and I think his pitch count could push up to 80 here. He should be able to find plenty of quick outs, so back him to pitch into the sixth once again.
This is solely a play on Trevor Rogers’ hit rate. He has issued two or more free passes in 17 of his 23 starts this season, ranking in the 15th percentile in BB% among starters. Rogers has always struggled with his control and has gone over this line in 65% of his 82 career starts. The matchup definitely isn’t conducive for walks, as Rogers faces the Nationals, but the 17-of-23 on the season is simply too strong to ignore.
Tyler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from him, follow @808Paperboi
