Back-to-back subpar days are not going to cut it. Let’s rebound and find a positive day this Wednesday, June 26. Here are three of my favorite player predictions for today.
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Back-to-back subpar days are not going to cut it. Let’s rebound and find a positive day this Wednesday, June 26. Here are three of my favorite player predictions for today.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 115-63
Oakland sends out rookie Joey Estes to take on the Angels for a Wednesday matinee game. Looking at his game log, you would see that he has gone over this in half of his starts, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. He ranks in the bottom ninth percentile in CSW% and 14th in xERA among all starting pitchers. Projection systems have him penciled in for a K/9 around 6.8 for the rest of the season. With his out prop set at 15.5, with -145 juiced to the under, the math says he won’t find five strikeouts in this start. Plus, the Angels haven’t been very strikeout-heavy as of late, ranking 17th in K% (21.9%) against righties over the past 30 days.
Nathan Eovaldi takes on the Milwaukee Brewers today. Per usual, Eovaldi has put up solid numbers this season ranking in the 69th percentile in xERA, 84th in xFIP, 82nd in K% and 91st in CSW% among all starting pitchers. Excluding his shortened start in his return off the injured list (IL), where he threw just 37 pitches, Eovaldi has exceeded this line in eight of his 11 starts this season. The Brewers have been hovering around the middle of the pack regarding strikeouts for the season, and are 12th in K% (24.2%) against righties over the past 30 days. At this price, Eovaldi is a play to the more than in my eyes.
We faded Grayson Rodriguez in his last outing against the Astros, and all he did was put up eight strikeouts against one of the hardest teams to punch out. Well, he draws a similarly tough strikeout matchup taking on the Guardians here, but not one that warrants a line this low. Rodriguez is over this line in 11 of his 13 starts this season and 17 out of 23 starts in his rookie season last year. Add that all up and that is a 78% hit rate over his first 36 career starts. He ranks in the top 84% in K% and 89% in CSW%. With that sort of hit rate, this low of a line and what he showed last week in another tough matchup, the play is pretty clearly the more than in my eyes.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
Tyler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from him, follow @808Paperboi
