Tonight’s MLB Underdog pick ’em lobby is stuffed with player props. Tonight’s most exciting player props are hitter-leaning, but one pitcher’s prop is eye-catching.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>
Tonight’s MLB Underdog pick ’em lobby is stuffed with player props. Tonight’s most exciting player props are hitter-leaning, but one pitcher’s prop is eye-catching.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Underdog Fantasy Player Predictions
Kevin Gausman HIGHER 31.5 Fantasy Points
Kevin Gausman’s numbers have been mixed down the stretch. According to FanGraphs, in his previous nine starts spanning 55.1 innings, he’s had a 2.77 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 4.77 SIERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.0 BB%, 18.9 K%, 25.0 CSW%, 88 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 102 Pitching+.
Gausman’s ERA estimators were wretched, but his ERA was sparkling. That’s typically a significant red flag, but Gausman’s stellar metrics for location and pitching alleviate some concerns.
Furthermore, Gausman has a matchup against a struggling offense and favorable betting info tonight. In the previous 14 days, the Red Sox were 26th in wRC+ (78) with a 26.5 K%. Thus, Toronto is -140, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.
Trevor Larnach HIGHER 1.5 Total Bases (Scorcher 1.25x)
Trevor Larnach is wrapping up a career year at the dish. In 390 plate appearances this season, Larnach has hit 17 doubles and 15 homers with a .254 batting average, .264 xBA, .434 slugging, .478 xSLG and .179 ISO. So, Larnach’s batted-ball data was better than his actual stats.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder has done most of his damage against righties. in 367 plate appearances against righties this year, Larnach has hit 15 doubles and 15 homers with a .256 batting average, .441 slugging and .185 ISO.
Larnach’s matchup is favorable against Edward Cabrera. Miami’s righty has surrendered six doubles, one triple, eight homers, a .238 batting average and .429 slugging to 200 lefties this season.
Paul Goldschmidt HIGHER 9.0 Fantasy Points
Paul Goldschmidt is a monster against lefties. In 467 plate appearances against southpaws since 2022, he’s hit 20 homers with a .413 OBP, .222 ISO and 165 wRC+. The veteran righty is also in good form. In his previous 27 games and 108 plate appearances, he’s hit two homers and stolen three bases with nine runs, 11 RBIs, a .374 OBP, .182 ISO and 144 wRC+.
Goldy has a dreamy matchup and ideal hitting conditions at Coors Field. Austin Gomber has yielded a .367 wOBA to 227 righties at home this season. Finally, according to FantasyPros, Coors Field has park factors of 1.160 for singles, 1.295 for doubles, 1.816 for triples, 1.220 for homers and 1.351 for runs.
Nolan Arenado HIGHER 8.0 Fantasy Points
Nolan Arenado’s 100 wRC+ in 420 plate appearances against lefties since 2022 was underwhelming. However, a .216 BABIP undercut otherwise stellar numbers. Arenado’s power numbers were quite good. He hit 21 homers with a .218 ISO in 420 plate appearances against lefties since 2022. The veteran third baseman should enjoy a return to his old stomping grounds and make the most of a drool-inducing matchup.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
