If you’re a fan of a juicy revenge narrative, the first Monday Night Football match-up of the season is just your speed. Russell Wilson hasn’t yet played a real snap for his new team, the Denver Broncos. When he does so for the first time Monday, it will come in the stadium he’s called home for his entire NFL career.
How will Wilson’s desire to show out against his former team impact the props sheet for Monday night?
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 1 Monday Night Football match-up between the Broncos and Seahawks:
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Russell Wilson OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128 via FanDuel)
Even in Pete Carroll’s run-first offense, Russell Wilson managed multiple passing touchdowns in nine of his 14 games last season. That includes a stretch where he was playing at less than full strength after rushing to return from a gruesome thumb injury. When healthy, Mr. Unlimited regularly tallies multiple passing scores, having done so 11 times in 16 games in 2020. Plus, Russ should have the keys to Nathaniel Hackett’s offense in ways Carroll never really allowed in Seattle. Though I’m not keen on betting the Over for Wilson’s yardage total given the potential for short fields behind a stout Denver defense, the oft-efficient former Seahawk should have no trouble clearing this mark in primetime.
Courtland Sutton OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115 via DraftKings)
The debate in the off-season over which talented pass-catcher would settle in as Wilson’s No. 1 in the Broncos offense between Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy has been fierce. Though there should be plenty of Russ to go around, I like Sutton to establish himself as the alpha. He compiled more than 1,100 yards in 2019 with an unsightly mix of Joe Flacco and Drew Lock throwing him the football. Back healthy and with a Future Hall of Famer at QB, Sutton is primed for a breakout. Among receivers with more than 30 receptions last season, Sutton ranked ninth in air yards per reception. Russ throws a brilliant deep ball. It may only take connecting on one or two shot-plays to push Sutton over this conservative mark.
Geno Smith UNDER 210.5 Passing Yards (-115 via DraftKings)
Three times last season, Geno Smith stood in for an injured Russell Wilson as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback. Three times, he fell short of this passing yardage mark set by DraftKings for Monday. The idealogy of a Pete Carroll offense is ball control. That was true with one of the game’s top gunslingers at quarterback and should be even more so with a game manager like Smith at the helm. Even if the Broncos open up a healthy lead, I don’t expect the Seahawks to abandon the run. Seattle will pick its spots for deep shots to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but the Denver defense ranked eighth in the NFL last season in passing yards allowed (214.8 yards/game). Against this secondary, I don’t see the path to Geno significantly improving his outputs from last season.
