Much like the NFL BettingPros Accuracy Competition we hold for over 150 betting analysts every season, we at BettingPros also began an annual accuracy competition for MLB futures last year. Every analyst who decided to enter had to predict the exact win totals of every MLB team. We then took their predictions and simply compared them to the actual results in order to derive an “Error Rating”. You can see the top 10 leaderboard below then we will dive into how the #1 most accurate expert beat the rest of the field and what we can learn from the overs and unders that hit.
|Rank||EXPERT||ERROR||AVG ERROR||VIEW PICKS|
|1||Steve Gardner (USA Today)||207||6.9||View Picks|
|2||Donkey Teeth (Razzball)||213||7.1||View Picks|
|3||Jason Johnson (Understanding Fantasy Baseball)||217||7.2||View Picks|
|4||Chris Meaney (The Athletic)||221||7.4||View Picks|
|5||Tyler Thompson (Fantasy Six Pack)||223||7.4||View Picks|
|5||Max Freeze (Freeze Stats)||223||7.4||View Picks|
|7||Adam Ronis (Fantasy Alarm)||225||7.5||View Picks|
|8||Bill Dubiel (RotoBaller)||231||7.7||View Picks|
|9||Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)||233||7.8||View Picks|
|10||Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)||235||7.8||View Picks|
|10||Jake Ciely (The Athletic)||235||7.8||View Picks|
|10||Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)||235||7.8||View Picks|
|10||Nick Mariano (RotoBaller)||235||7.8||View Picks|
|10||Dan Harris (FantasyPros)||235||7.8||View Picks|
|10||Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller)||235||7.8||View Picks|
Congratulations to Steve Gardner (USA Today) for taking home the 2019 MLB Futures Accuracy championship. Steve was the only analyst to average an error rating below 7 wins per team. In fact, the 15 listed above were the only ones who ended up below 8 wins per team off from the actual results. As you might imagine, Steve had a number of excellent calls. For instance, he accurately predicted the Yankees to win exactly 103 games. Likewise, Gardner was spot on with Milwaukee Brewers smashing the Vegas line of 84.5 wins. Steve was with 96% of our experts who took the over. Steve, however, was bolder than most, projecting Milwaukee to win 92 games. One that many experts missed on, though, was the Padres at over 78 wins. Steve was also on the right side of this one, projecting San Diego at just 71 wins (9.0 lower than the consensus). The Padres ended up very near Gardner’s projection with a 70-92 finish. Well done, Steve on an incredible set of predictions!
You just read about the overwhelming success of our experts betting on the Brewers while 72% missed on the Padres. Let’s take a look at other big wins plus some swings and misses. Somehow, Vegas had the Baltimore Orioles line set all the way up at 59 wins even though that had won just 54 with a better roster the season prior. Our experts sniffed that error out and 80% of them jumped on the under. Baltimore ended up winning just 54 games which was right in line with our 54.4 expert projected average. In a similar light, 76% of experts successfully chose the under on Miami winning 63.5 games while 80% selected the under on Pittsburgh winning 77.5. Neither number came up close to reaching the over so the expert consensus was spot on. Another big win for the experts was picking the over on St. Louis 88.5 wins. While this one ended up closer than the others, it is notable that the Cardinals have now reached the over against Vegas in six consecutive seasons.
On the flip side, there were some misses to learn from as well. Colorado was an overwhelming bet for the over 81.5 wins after having won 91 games in 2018. The Rockies ended up collapsing to just 71 wins in the 2019 campaign. We already mentioned the Padres being a popular favorite of the experts, but they weren’t even the biggest miss in the NL West. A whopping 92% of the experts had the under on Arizona at 78.5. The D-Backs went on to win 85 games and compete for the NL Wild Card. Over the past handful of seasons, the three lower spending teams in the NL West have been wildly volatile in their wins so it may be worth taking into consideration when you place your 2020 futures bets.
Congratulations again to Steve Gardner and the entire top 10 MLB futures betting experts of the 2019 season. We will be back next year to crown a new winner unless Steve can defend his title.
Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Bobby, follow him @BobbyFantasyPro