The Friday night slate of NBA games is jam-packed with action. There are nine games on the schedule, which means there are plenty of good opportunities for betting edges. Let's take a look at some of these games for our top NBA picks & predictions.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
One of the premier games in the NBA on Friday night pits the Hawks against the Celtics. With the log-jam from the No. 5 seed to the No. 10 seed in the standings, this could very well be a first-round playoff matchup. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference since the trade deadline after revamping the roster around Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels. They've blossomed on the offensive end and have gotten up and down the court at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.
The Celtics have been making their moves on the defensive end. They're coming off a dominating 119-109 performance against the Thunder. In their last seven games, they've allowed just 105.1 points per game (PPG). However, their offense remains the second-most efficient in the league, behind the Nuggets; they just play at a league-low glacial pace.
Boston is one of the few teams that can slow down the high-flying Hawks. Atlanta's recent run of offensive success came against some bad defenses. Their most analogous game was against Houston, where they only managed 95 points on 85 shot attempts. This game should have a bit of a playoff feel, and that should lead to an under.
Pick: Under 224.5 Points (-112)
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers
Friday night has a rematch of a tough-fought Wednesday night game. The Cavaliers will look to erase the bad taste in their mouths in a game where they fell apart defensively in the fourth quarter, losing 120-103 to this Miami team. The Heat really shot the ball well in that game with a 51.9% effective field-goal rate (eFG%) and 40% three-point rate. One reason they were able to pull away is that Cleveland kept turning the ball over, and Miami turned that into 18 points.
Cleveland isn't a team that is particularly known for turning the ball over, so there is reason to expect some regression there. This line also indicates that they should be getting Jarrett Allen back, who is listed as a game-time decision. His presence as a rim protector will force Miami to shoot more from the outside and mid-range, where their field-goal rate is in the bottom third of the league.
This season series has been very competitive so far, and Cleveland will look to even it up. Although Miami sits as the No. 10 seed headed into Friday, it's only two games back of the No. 5 seed. Cleveland wants no part of seeing this Heat team in the first round of the playoffs. An easy way to prevent that is to get a big win here. Expect Cleveland to lock in and take control.
Pick: Cavaliers -5.5 (-106)
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
This game is far from one of the best on the schedule. As far as excitement and intrigue, it might sit at the bottom of the list. However, this matchup provides a strong edge on one of the spread sides. We get the No. 1 offense in the league against the last-place defense, per offensive and defensive ratings.
Aaron Gordon is expected back for the Nuggets, meaning that they should have their full arsenal of offensive weapons. I don't see how Utah slows them down. The Jazz have allowed 127.4 PPG over their last eight games, and that includes games against Washington, Sacramento and Milwaukee, who all rank near the bottom of the league in offensive rating.
The Nuggets lead the league in eFG% and are top-three in turnover rate and free-throw rate. Meanwhile, no one allows more made shots or free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt than the Jazz.
This is a massive mismatch in favor of Denver. The Jazz, even when fully healthy, aren't equipped to handle this offense. In this matchup, however, Utah won't be at full strength and barely have an NBA-caliber lineup. The Nuggets should throttle the Jazz, and the only thing preventing them from covering this gigantic spread would be late pregame scratches for the Nuggets. Keep an eye out for that, but if they're full strength, hammer the Nuggets on the spread.
Pick: Nuggets -18.5 (-106)
