There may only be three games on Thursday’s schedule, but that doesn't mean there aren't some good angles to bet on. Let's take a deeper look into some of these games to find some best bets for the Thursday slate. Check out our top NBA picks and predictions below.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns
Even with the injury to Tyrese Haliburton, there was some excitement for the Pacers coming into this season. That excitement has quickly diminished as the defending Eastern Conference champs have gotten off to an abysmal 1-10 start. It's not even just that they're losing these games; they're getting blown out. In their first three games of this road trip, they've lost each contest by 17+ points, averaging a 24-point margin of defeat.
Phoenix has been hot after a slow start. They're up to 6-5 straight up (SU) on the season and a very strong 7-4 against the spread (ATS), including 6-0 at home and 4-0 as a favorite. They've really relied on an improved defense over the last week. In two games against the Clippers and the Pelicans, they've allowed just 101 points per game. But their overall metrics imply that this could be a mirage. Phoenix ranks only 24th in defensive rating and is a poor defensive rebounding team that fouls a lot.
Indiana hasn't shown much of an ability to stop anyone, and with a significant amount of injuries to their guards, it'll be a weak spot against a guard-heavy Phoenix offense. With Phoenix on the second night of a back-to-back, expect some tired legs on their end. In a matchup between two metrically poor defenses, I'll be backing the over.
Pick: Over 229.5 Points (-110)
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Toronto is a team that some prognosticators predicted to have a breakout season. It's been a pretty strong start for the team up North. They've started 6-5 SU and have been hot in November - 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. They've been a strong shooting team that sits in the top ten of effective field goal rate (eFG%) and really take care of the basketball. This will be especially important against a Cleveland defense that relies heavily on turnovers.
In the last two years, since J.B. Bickerstaff departed and Kenny Atkinson took over on the bench, the Cavaliers have shifted their identity from being defensive-focused to offense-focused. They sit in the bottom half of eFG% defense, defensive rebounding rate and defensive free throw rate. They're more than capable of giving up a high point total to a Toronto team that doesn't turn it over.
This spread is likely too large for these two teams. Toronto should continue to impress throughout the season, and I like that to come to fruition on Thursday against the Cavaliers. I'll be backing the road underdogs to cover.
Pick: Raptors +7 (-110)
