Thursday is the final day of the NBA calendar before the All-Star break. There are only three games on the schedule, but despite the limited action on the board, there are still plenty of opportunities for good angles. Here are my favorite NBA picks & predictions to cap off the first half of the season.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
The first half of the season didn't go the way the Milwaukee Bucks wanted. With Giannis Antetokounmpo injured for much of the season, the Bucks will enter the break on the outside looking in of both the playoff and play-in pictures. However, the month of February has been much kinder to the Bucks. After a blowout loss on the first, the Bucks are winners of four of their last five, with all four wins beating the spread.
The Thunder have been the dominant force they showed to be all of last season on the way to the NBA title, but you wouldn't know that by looking at their against the spread (ATS) record. Despite being a league-best 42-13 straight up (SU), they sit at only 27-28 ATS on the season. However, eight of their last nine victories also resulted in ATS wins. Even without many of their stars over the last few weeks, the Thunder’s wins have resulted in blowouts.
We should expect a blowout in this one as well. Milwaukee has shot the ball well this season, even with all of the losses. They have an effective field goal rate (eFG%) of 56.7%, which is the third-best mark in the league. The Thunder sport an elite defense as they have held opponents to a 51.6% eFG%, the second-best mark in the league behind Detroit. Other than that, Milwaukee hasn't done much well on either side of the floor. Oklahoma City should be able to do whatever it wants on the offensive end, and the Bucks don't have the firepower to keep up.
Pick: Thunder -12.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
The last game of the night involves the Lakers and the Mavericks. Dallas has been reeling of late after moving on from Anthony Davis at the trade deadline. It's been eight straight losses dating back to late January with a 2-6 ATS record during that span. What chance do they have in this game on the road?
The Lakers have been at home since February 5th, and the All-Star game will be played at the Intuit Dome. Many of the players, including the team’s All-Stars, won't be traveling, so it's safe to wonder if they've already started their break mentally. Key primetime games this week resulted in big losses to the Thunder and the Spurs. You have to wonder if the Lakers have the juice to get up for a game against Dallas.
As good as the Lakers are offensively, and they're plenty good, their defense has allowed teams like Dallas to stay in games and even beat them. Even a team like Dallas, that shoots in the bottom third of the league, should have some success.
On the other end of the floor, the Mavericks have had a pretty solid defense, holding opponents to just 53% eFG% and rarely fouling opponents, which is bad news for a Lakers team that lives at the line. This game should develop into a defensive battle where the Mavericks put up a strong fight against a team that is likely already checked out.
Picks: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) & Under 232.5 Points (-108)
