The premier day of the NBA season is finally here. Christmas Day features five games throughout the day. There are plenty of big names playing and playoff-caliber matchups. Let's take a look at a few of the contests for our top Christmas Day NBA picks & predictions.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks
After a season where it seemed everything broke the Cavaliers' way, they've regressed. Although Cleveland remains squarely in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, they've been terribleagainst the spread (ATS) on the season. They enter Thursday's contest 9-22 ATS with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games.
The absence of Evan Mobley has been difficult for Cleveland’s defense. The Cavaliers have allowed at least 118 points in each of their last five games, with their young star on the mend. This was against three offenses ranked 12th, 17th, and 19th in offensive rating. Because of this, they've managed to only go 1-4 ATS in these last five games without Mobley.
New York will pose quite a bit more difficult challenge offensively. The Knicks boast an elite unit that ranks fourth in offensive rating. They're a team that shoots very well at every position, and when they don't make the shot,s they're a top-four team in offensive rebounding. In front of a raucous Madison Square Garden crowd on Christmas Day, I expect the Knicks to light up this Cleveland defense that has struggled mightily against offenses much more pedestrian.
Pick: Knicks -5.5 (-112)
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
For the third time in two weeks, these two Western Conference rivals are clashing. San Antonio has gotten the upper hand on the defending champs in each of the first two games, handing the Thunder two of their four losses on the season. Oklahoma City should have the upper hand and will be looking for a bit of revenge.
In both matchups, the Thunder scored 110 or fewer points while the Spurs were able to do much of whatever they wanted offensively. Shooting a combined 48.8% field goal rate and 37.2% three-point rate while assisting on nearly 65% of their made shots. Oklahoma City is much too proud of a defensive team to allow that to continue.
Despite both teams being strong offensive clubs, this game should play out as a defensive battle. Having seen each other twice already in the last two weeks leaves these conference foes very familiar with each other. Oklahoma City has its eyes on a historic regular season, but the Spurs continue to be in the way. The easiest path to a Thunder victory is on the defensive end, which should translate to a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 233.5 Points (-115)
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
The big primetime matchup of the night takes place in Los Angeles between the Rockets and the Lakers. These two teams will be jockeying for Western Conference seeding all season. If you look at the profiles of these two teams, you'll see very quickly that they love to score points. Both teams rank in the top 10 of offensive rating and trend towards the over in games this year, so this one should produce a lot of points.
The Rockets have torched the league from deep, shooting 40% on three-point attempts. When they do miss, though, you can bet they're going to crash the offensive glass. Houston leads the league in offensive rebounding rate by a large margin. The gap between their league best 37.2% and the second-place team is as large as the gap between second and seventh. They should have plenty of success against a Lakers defense that is in the bottom three in shooting rate at the rim and from deep.
The Lakers have been great offensively, too. Their biggest strength is getting to the free-throw line. With strong foul attractors like Luka Doncic and LeBron James, the Lakers lead the league in free-throw rate and attempt 28.9 free throws per game. Additionally, the Lakers are 19-9 to the over this season, including an incredible 11-0 to the over at home this season. With two elite offenses in primetime, expect this one to follow those trends.
Pick: Over 230.5 Points (-112)
