Friday's NBA slate features three massive Game 3 matchups. All three series are tied at one game apiece, and Friday’s outcomes are critical to each team's postseason survival. Let's dive deeper into these matchups for our best NBA picks for Friday, April 24th.
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Friday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday night had one of the most shocking outcomes of the NBA playoffs so far. The 76ers, as double-digit underdogs, went into Boston and came away with an outright victory. How did they do it? An otherworldly deep shooting performance was the key to their success. The 76ers went 19-of-39 from deep as they pulled away in the second quarter and never looked back.
If you dive deep into the box score, though, that shooting performance was the only thing that kept them afloat. Boston won the battle on the boards, at the free-throw line and points in the paint. All the little things that typically spell wins in the playoffs went to Boston, but they were unable to overcome that shooting performance by Philadelphia.
During the regular season, Philadelphia was one of the worst shooting teams. Their 53% effective field-goal rate (eFG%) ranked 25th in the league, and from three-point range, they shot just 34.9%. Even though they'll be in front of a home crowd, we should expect to see some shooting regression. If there is regression, then there is very little that Philadelphia is going to do better than Boston in this series.
Boston was a double-digit favorite in both of the first two games in this series. The box scores indicate that, despite the series being tied, Boston was the better team on both nights. They should show that again on Friday night and pull off a big road win to take a lead in the series.
Pick: Celtics -7.5 (-106)
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
One of the biggest stories of this postseason is that the Rockets have looked listless in the first two games of this series. The offense has not been able to get going despite playing a defense ranked in the bottom third of many defensive metrics. It's been the shooting that has been the Achilles heel in the first two games.
Houston has shot just 39% from the floor and 29% from deep. Despite this, they've still won a few of the key box score indicators in this matchup. They're winning the rebounding matchup, which tracks as they're one of the best rebounding teams in the entire league. This has also led to dominating points in the paint.
If Houston can keep up that level of play and we see the shooting from both teams regress closer to the mean, we should see Houston get back into this series. The books think so too, which is why a team down 0-2 is such a large favorite in Game 3. I also expect Houston to put up a much better performance at home than they've displayed in the first two games.
The Lakers have been shooting over 50% from deep in the series, which is why they've scored 104 points per game while only attempting 69 field goals per game. They likely won't maintain that level of success against a top-five Houston defense. The Rockets were sixth in eFG% defense and seventh in three-point defense (35.1%).
Although it seems a bit contradictory, I like both the under and Houston on the spread. Their domination on the boards and in the paint is something Houston can maintain. The poor shooting from the Rockets and the hot shooting from the Lakers is unlikely to continue. This should be the first game in this series that the Lakers will feel the absence of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Houston will turn this back into a series.
Picks: Under 205.5 Points (-110) & Rockets -10.5 (-105)
