There are three games tonight, including two that involve clinching scenarios. Despite being up 3-1 in the series, the Orlando Magic are double-digit underdogs. I explain why I think they're being seriously undervalued against the Detroit Pistons. Then I highlight why I expect the Cleveland Cavaliers to excel from long range, while Reed Sheppard continues his own hot shooting from beyond the arc, as his Houston Rockets look to stay alive against the Los Angeles Lakers. Here are the best NBA picks for Wednesday, April 29th.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons
It seems that oddsmakers are basing this line on the regular season rather than what's taken place through four games of this series. The Magic have held the Pistons to just 98 points per game, the lowest of any team in the postseason. And while the Magic were far from great in the regular season, their scoring defense still ranked in the top half of the league, allowing 115.1 points per game.
But the real reason why I'm backing the Magic isn't their scoring defense. It's how sloppy the Magic's defense has made the Pistons play for four games. The Pistons are averaging 18 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, the Magic are averaging just 13.3.
Neither team has shot well in the series, as both are making fewer than 42% of their shots. In a series where shooting percentages are down and defenses are dominating, I'll gladly take an underdog getting 10.5 points. Especially when they've looked like the better team thus far.
Pick: Orlando Magic +10.5 (-105)
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are averaging 13.3 made three-pointers per game in their series against the Toronto Raptors. That number jumps to 14.5 in home games, as the Cavaliers have made at least 13 threes in both games in Cleveland, and they knocked down 16 shots from beyond the arc in Game 1.
The only real reason this wouldn't hit is that the Cavaliers aren't shooting a high percentage from deep. Through four games, they're making just 33.8% of their three-pointers. But they're averaging 39.3 per game, which is the third-most of any playoff team.
In home games this series, the Cavaliers are shooting 40.2% from deep. If there's any concern that these home games were fluky, the Cavaliers averaged 14.3 made three-pointers per game during the regular season.
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers 15+ Made Three-Pointers (+105)
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Reed Sheppard has made the most three-pointers in two of the four games between the Rockets and Lakers. He has made at least four threes in three of his four games, and he's averaging 9.3 attempts per game. He's actually second on the team in three-pointers made per game this series, but that's only because he didn't make a single shot from beyond the arc in Game 2. He's still averaging 3.3 per contest.
With Jabari Smith Jr. his only real competition from a teammate, I turn my attention to the Lakers. The Lakers are shooting better than 40% from deep in this series, but they're attempting just 24.5 three-pointers per game. That has led to them averaging just 10 makes per contest, which is tied for the third-fewest in the postseason.
The Rockets had one of the best three-point defenses during the regular season, allowing just 12.4 makes per game. Look for their success to continue in Game 5, as Sheppard puts up enough shots from deep to land a solid payday for this prop.
Pick: Reed Sheppard Most Three-Pointers in the Game (+163)
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.