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NBA Play of the Day for January 15th, 2020

by January 15, 2020

The Brooklyn Nets are set to take on the Philadelphia 76ers in their second game of a back to back. Brooklyn and Philadelphia are set to square off for the first time in five days, as the division rivals will meet again on Monday in Brooklyn. The Nets suffered a tough home loss (one with shot clock and horn malfunctions) to the Utah Jazz last night, but appear to have some value against the 76ers. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at +7.5 on Brooklyn, a number that one would expect to be assigned to a Nets team that was still missing Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert. Let’s dig in and uncover whether the numbers concur. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7.5 on Philadelphia 76ers. The consensus over/under total opened at 218.5 points. The point spread has held steady at -7.5. The over/under total has dropped to 218.
  • Current Line: Philadelphia -7.5
  • O/U: 218
  • Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • Start Time: 7:00 PM EST, Wednesday, January 15th
  • Last Meeting: Brooklyn defeated Philadelphia 109-89 – December 15, 2019

Overview 

The 18-21 Brooklyn Nets have finally got Kyrie Irving back from his extended shoulder injury and will be looking to shoot their way up the Eastern Conference standings. Kevin Durant has reiterated that he expects to be sidelined for the entire season, so the Nets will be forced to get by down one of their franchise-altering offseason signings. Injuries have been a huge part of why the Nets are currently saddled with a losing record, as talented wing Caris LeVert has missed 25 games, while Irving has missed 26. Spencer Dinwiddie played at a near all-star level while the two were sidelined, and in turn, helped keep the Nets in playoff position. Brooklyn sits in eighth place in the East and will be looking to win their third contest in the last four games with a victory tonight against the 76ers. 

The 25-16 Philadelphia 76ers have been on a bit of a slide recently and may see things get worse before they get better due to Joel Embiid being sidelined for the next two weeks due to ring finger surgery. Philadelphia has lost six of their last nine contests, and two of their three without Embiid, dropping them to 4-6 on the season without their star big man. That record suggests that their controversial addition of Al Horford has not worked out as expected. Embiid has missed at least 18 games in each of his NBA seasons, and adding another big instead of looking to try to replace the scoring punch and defense Jimmy Butler provided on the wing was ostensibly made with the impetus of being able to survive their franchise players inevitable absences throughout the season. The 76ers have dropped to sixth place in the East due to their recent poor play and will be looking to snap their two-game losing streak with a win tonight over the Nets.

Trends

  • Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Brooklyn.
  • Brooklyn is 18-21 ATS on the season.
  • Brooklyn is 7-12 ATS on the road this season.
  • Philadelphia is 16-21-4 ATS on the season.
  • Philadelphia is 10-8-2 ATS at home this season.
  • Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in their last five road contests.
  • Brooklyn is 0-6 ATS in their last six contests as road underdogs.
  • Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against teams with winning records.
  • Brooklyn is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 contests Wednesday contests.
  • Philadelphia is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Philadelphia is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight contests.
  • Philadelphia is 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine contests as a favorite.
  • Philadelphia is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with losing road records.
  • Philadelphia is 1-3-2 ATS in their last six contests as home favorites.
  • Under is 5-0 in Brooklyn’s last five contests played on zero days of rest.
  • Over is 5-1 in Brooklyn’s last six Wednesday contests.
  • Over is 4-0 in Brooklyn’s last four contests against teams with winning percentages above .600.
  • Over is 6-1 in Philadelphia’s last seven home contests.
  • Under is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last six contests.
  • Over is 5-0 in Philadelphia’s last five contests as a home favorite.

Prop Bets 

Josh Richardson over 18.5 points (-116)
Josh Richardson has caught fire as of late and is averaging 22.8 points per game over his last four contests. Joel Embiid is set to miss tonight’s game as he recovers from ring finger surgery, which means that Richardson should be afforded enough shot attempts, and hopefully trips to the line, to eclipse the 18.5 point total on this player prop. The juice is heavily on the over due to his recent strong play (under is at -106), despite it being set at a number three points higher than his season average (15.7). The juice on this prop is likely to continue to rise throughout the day, so lock this one as a potential multi-unit play at FanDuel as soon as possible.

Bottom Line 

This contest is an interesting one to handicap. Both the 76ers and the Nets have been struggling when it comes to the spread in their recent contests, giving us no definitive lean based on trends. Unsurprisingly, their recent slips against the spread has been accompanied by poor play overall, and as a result, losing records over the last three weeks. With both teams being so poor both in recent form and trends, our lean for this contest comes down to team health and head to head play. These two division rivals met early last month, with both Kyrie Irving and Joel Embiid sidelined, and the Nets blew the 76ers out by 20 points. With Irving stating that he expects to play tonight despite the back to back, the Nets are the play. The Nets have a higher probability to win this contest straight up than the odds suggest, and the current +7.5 cushion should be more than enough for the Nets to click ATS in this contest. Punch this in as a one-unit play at FanDuel before the spread drops.

Pick: Brooklyn Nets +7.5 (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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