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NBA Play of the Day for October 30th, 2019

by October 30, 2019

Today’s NBA play of the day is a battle between two of the Western Conference’s best. The Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz are expected to be two of the West’s top teams when the dust settles on the 2019-20 season. The point spread for this contest has taken a complete turn. It opened with the Clippers as two-point favorites but was quickly corrected with the sharps pouring in money on the Jazz. The public has been behind the Clippers with 66 percent of the action, but the majority of the money so far has been on Utah. Let’s dig in. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -2 on the Los Angeles Clippers. The over/under total opened at 216.5 points. The spread for this contest has seen a complete flip and now sits at -3 on Utah. The over/under total has seen a slight dip and currently sits at 215.
  • Current Line: Utah -3
  • O/U: 215
  • Location: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
  • Start Time: 10:00 PM EST, Monday, October 28th, 2019
  • Last Meeting: Los Angeles defeated Utah 143-137 April 10th, 2019

Overview

The Los Angeles Clippers are 3-1 through four contests and look like an NBA Championship contender even without Paul George on the floor. The acquisitions of Kawhi and George were the biggest splash moves of an exciting NBA offseason following an NBA Championship victory by Leonard and the Toronto Raptors. Load management became a dirty word in the NBA last season, and while the Clippers cannot afford to do the same for Kawhi this season, they have been limiting his minutes per game. By the time Kawhi finally starts clicking on all cylinders with his new teammates, the Clippers will be welcoming superstar Paul George back into the fold from dual shoulder surgeries. The first player to ever switch teams after winning the NBA Finals MVP, Kawhi appears to have made a well-calculated decision by refusing to sign with the Clippers unless they brought in another star. 

The Utah Jazz made some splashes of their own this offseason. Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic have provided elite reinforcements for a team that now looks ready to stake their claim as a legitimate contender. The Jazz may be too young to win it all this season, but there is no denying that they look like one of the best teams in the NBA on paper. The veteran presence of Conley will help steady the hand of this rising team. The range of Bogdanovic will help spread the floor, and keep defenses honest when it comes to guarding the impressive backcourt of Mike Conley Jr. and Donovan Mitchell. Bogdanovic has looked like a legitimate star on a Jazz team devoid of any top-end scoring talent outside of Mitchell and has averaged over 27 points over his past two contests. The Jazz are 3-1 on the season and will be looking for a statement win over a Clippers team many have pegged to win it all. 

Trends

  • The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two teams. 
  • The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 contests between these two teams. 
  • Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • The over is 5-2 in the last seven contests between these two teams played in Utah. 
  • The over is 5-1 in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • Los Angeles is 2-2 ATS on the season. 
  • Los Angeles is 1-1 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Utah is 1-3 ATS on the season. 
  • Utah is 1-1 ATS at home this season. 
  • Los Angeles is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 contests against the Northwest division. 
  • Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests played on one day of rest. 
  • Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Utah is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 contests against the Pacific division. 
  • Utah is 13-5 in their last 18 Wednesday contests. 
  • Utah is 21-10-1 in their last 32 contests following a loss ATS. 
  • The over is 4-0 in Los Angeles’ last four road contests. 
  • The over is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ last five contests against the Western Conference. 
  • The over is 4-0 in Los Angeles’ last four contests following a straight-up win. 
  • The under is 7-0 in Utah’s last seven contests overall. 
  • The under is 4-0 in Utah’s last four home contests. 
  • The under is 10-3 in Utah’s last 13 contests against the Pacific division. 

Prop Bets 

Kawhi Leonard over 25.5 points (-118)
Kawhi Leonard has cleared 25.5 points in three of his four contests this season. Though the Clippers appear to be managing his minutes, Kawhi has played more minutes in competitive contests. Kawhi is averaging 27 points per game on the season. He averaged 27.3 points per game last October, suggesting that his early-season scoring binge is no fluke. Kawhi should see just over 30 minutes against a tough Utah Jazz team, and as a result, he will see the volume to clear this total with ease. Only a horrible shooting night from the floor for a career .495 shooter can prevent Leonard from clicking. 

Donovan Mitchell over 21.5 (-125)
Donovan Mitchell has scored 24 points per game this season and is a strong bet to clear the 21.5 total posted at PointsBet. The -125 juice suggests the early action has all been on the over. Mitchell has scored at least 24 points per game in every competitive contest the Jazz have played this season (three of four) and should do once again in a contest the Jazz opened as underdogs in. Lock this one is as a one-unit play before the juice rises further. 

Bottom Line

The Los Angeles Clippers opened this contest as favorites, but the majority of the money has come in on the Jazz pushing this contest to a reversal at -3 on the Jazz. The Clippers are a strong bet to win this contest outright and now have a two-point cushion for bettors to work with. The trends suggest the dog has a higher win probability in this contest, and we concur. Kawhi Leonard has transformed the Los Angeles Clippers into one of the toughest outs in the league. The Jazz are going to have a tough time winning this contest by more than three points. Take the plus points to the bank. 

Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +3 (-109)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.