It's another day of NBA player props. The first couple of weeks of the season are in the books, and we have a good first handful of data under our belts. We've started the year off hot, and I intend to keep that going tonight.
As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have three games today, so plenty of options to cover. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Season: 174-125 | This Season: 17-9 | Last Time: 3-2
RJ Barrett Over 28.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-118 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
We head East tonight as Toronto travels to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. Cleveland is around an 8-point favorite. The total is around 241 points, so you know I'm trying to find the overs here. RJ Barrett has covered this line in three of his last five games, but is coming off a dud performance, so it's come down a bit. But that's the best time to buy in.
The Duke product only played 29 minutes in the win over Brooklyn and should see the court closer to 33 or 34 minutes tonight. Barrett will play in a fast-paced environment with both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play, hence the 240 total. It's also not like Cleveland has been the best defense either this year, and Barrett's usage rate has been steady around 24%. It's not my favorite play ever, but for a three-game slate, I'll take it.
Andrew Nembhard Under 27.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I understand how well Andrew Nembhard has been playing of late, averaging over 20 points and seven boards a game in his last three contests. But even with the given lineup and rotation, this prop is still overinflated.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects this combo prop closer to 23 combined points + assists + rebounds, and I have to agree. Phoenix's defense takes a big jump when playing at home, going from 14th to fourth in defensive rating. The Suns are 5-1 at home and play at a bottom-third pace. I expect a lot of plays to go through Pascal Siakam. During Nembhard’s hot streak, his usage hasn’t changed much from his rest of season averages, suggesting he's due for regression.
Dyson Daniels 1+ Three-Pointer Made (+110 at BetMGM)
For this final game, there wasn’t a lot that jumped off the page, but I didn't want to leave you hanging. Utah is one of the friendlier opponents when it comes to shooting from deep, and Atlanta has some banged-up pieces that should give Dyson Daniels more leeway.
Daniels gets shots up and is capable of making it from deep to the point that this prop should be even or minus odds. Don't go crazy with it, maybe throw a half unit down, but there's still value to be had here.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.