Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting. The NFL is done, and it's time to hunker down for the cold with the All-Star break coming up. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
After a massive slate yesterday, we're treated to a simple three-game slate before we take a little break. But don't worry, there are still good bets to be made. Large slate or not, stay on top of the news to get solid closing line value. Anyways, let's get to the best bets of the day.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 3-3 | This Season: 56-45
Daniel Gafford Under 18.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-105 at Hard Rock Bet)
Let's start with the last game of the night as the Dallas Mavericks travel to L.A. to take on LeBron James and the Lakers. The Mavericks have been going through the trenches with their trades, and that has left Daniel Gafford at the helm down low.
Over his last six games, he's stepped up a bit playing an additional two minutes a night, but his usage rate has actually gone down with the emergence of Cooper Flagg (who will miss this game). This is a line that the Mavericks big man has failed to cover in seven of his last 11. While things are different now, I expect him to fail to cover it again on the road tonight.
Not only does Gafford take a step back on the road historically, but the Lakers will slow down the pace here. Their defense isn't exactly elite, but the Lakers do allow the third fewest combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing centers. Simply put, the opportunity alone will likely be minimal thanks to his low usage rate and fewer possessions, so I'd be surprised if Gafford goes over his prop here.
Chet Holmgren 20+ Points (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I can't say I'm very excited for a game that features two teams missing their star players with a total of 216, but it's basketball and we can bet on it. That's good enough for me. Chet Holmgren is nothing if not consistent, scoring double-digit points in 15 straight games.
Now that doesn't necessarily mean 20+ points, but we do have a good jumping-off point. It also helps that Holmgren gets a scoring bump when playing at home, and that Milwaukee has allowed the sixth-most points to opposing power forwards against them over their last 15 games.
Combine that with Milwaukee’s 25th-ranked defense in the same time frame, and you can see why I'm comfortable buying stock at plus money. I'm sure you can find a better price throughout the day, on a spike scoring night for Holmgren.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.