NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (5/3)

Welcome to Sleeper Picks! Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight's NBA action. Similar to fantasy sports, the goal in Sleeper Picks is to draft a team of players based on who you think will perform better than the field. But with Sleeper Picks, you pick teams of 2-8 players from multiple teams based on your preferences and predict whether those players will score more or less than a predetermined amount. There are a number of ways to play and a variety of strategies to employ, and we’ll guide you through the process each week.

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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (5/3/24)

Regular season record: 202-130
Playoff record: 16-20

Donovan Mitchell (G – CLE): OVER 5.5 1st quarter points

Mitchell has been a consistent tone-setter for the Cavaliers in this series, scoring eight or more first quarter points in three of five games. Mitchell was back to being aggressive in Game 5, which is encouraging, even if he only scored four first quarter points. He had five field goal attempts in that quarter, which, for someone with extended range, is more than enough for this total. This total was set at 6.5 or 7.5 all series, so take advantage of the reaction line while it's available. Mash the More on Mitchell for Game 6.

Darius Garland (G – CLE): OVER 9.5 points (alt line)

Garland finally stepped up in Game 5, and if Jarrett Allen indeed misses tonight's contest due to a rib injury, expect Darius to have another high-volume night from the field. Garland has taken 11 or fewer shots in four of the five games in this series, which is nowhere close to enough for the actual total of 17.5 points. Yes, a Less play could be warranted based on this data but Garland could easily score 20 plus again for the second straight night if he remains aggressive. With that in mind, alt lines are the play. We have a 14.5 option at a 1.40x multiplier, but Garland has scored 14 or fewer points in three of the five games of this series and 15 or fewer in four of five. With that ruled out, we move to the 1.04x multiplier 9.5 line, which is as tasty as they come, as scoring 10 or fewer points twice in four games is an extremely difficult feat for a scorer as talented as Garland, even if he was only pretending to be trying. Dap the More on Darius for Game 6.

Paolo Banchero (F – ORL): OVER 3.5 assists (alt line)

Alt lines for the win. After an 0-3 outing yesterday, we are digging back into the alt line well for more high probability plays. Paolo is listed at 4.5 assists despite averaging just 4.4 in this series. In the five games of this series, he has dished out five assists three times, four assists one time, and three assists the other. Even if he has hit five or more in three of five, the fact that he narrowly hit the number in each means the value on the 4.5 is actually on the Less despite the trends. We can rectify this with the alt line, which, of course, drops our multiplier to 1.22x but boosts the probability on the More to a highly appealing level. Bump the More on Banchero for Game 6.

Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.