NCAA Tournament Upset Alert: Teams to Fade (West Region)

The big dance is here, and we have donned our sharpest flamenco shoes for the party. For a select group of teams, this may be a very short March Madness run, and we’re here to help you suss out who that could be. Here are a few West Region teams that you might want to stay away from in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

2026 NCAA Tournament Upset Alert: West Region

No. 10 Missouri Tigers

We kick things off with a team that is certainly not in the best position to make a miracle run through the field. However, the public seems to favor Missouri in its first matchup against Miami due to... logistics?

There seems to be plenty made of the fact that this game will be played in St. Louis, and the Miami Hurricanes will have to travel over 1,000 miles for this contest. Honestly, that's it... There is one argument for Missouri to win, but it isn't strong enough to beat Miami in the first round.

The Hurricanes won seven games last season. Jai Lucas has completely turned this team around, and they are now a No. 7 seed going into the tournament with 25 wins on the season. Miami finished the season winning eight of its last 11 games, with a plus-win margin of +10.8. The Hurricanes rank 10th in team field goal rate (50.1%) and 36th in shooting efficiency (1.169).

Missouri comes into this contest having lost three consecutive games. Their two biggest wins of the season were at home (Tennessee and Vanderbilt), and the Tigers have lost all three games played on a neutral court. Neutral may not be the best way to describe the location, yet it is not an official home game. It's difficult to think that having to travel a long distance will be a defining reason for Miami to fall short in this contest - especially after such a successful season.

No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

This selection boils down to injury more than anything for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Braden Huff has missed the previous 15 contests with a knee injury. Expectations are quite slim that Huff will be able to take to the floor in the first round, which means trouble, even if the Bulldogs can get by Kennesaw State this week.

Gonzaga played very well after losing Huff, but they did not face a ranked opponent in the following 15 games. Graham Ike has played masterfully in his absence; we don't know if that's enough to make a successful push in the first round or as the competition increases further in the tournament. Beyond Ike, the Bulldogs currently have only one player averaging double-digit points. That's not much firepower to go into this tournament with.

This is a rough spot for Gonzaga, and we feel it's way within reason to fade this team for the tournament. Even if the Bulldogs win their first-round matchup, there's no guarantee Huff can play in round two. Even if he can take the court, missing 15 games can have a major impact on his performance.

No. 6 BYU Cougars

We know, BYU has AJ Dybantsa. That's a completely fair argument to make. He is more than likely going to be a top-three pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. This is not a slight on his capabilities or the success he has had this season. It's just that after Dybansta, BYU isn’t loaded with the type of talent to push for a serious run.

BYU is averaging 79.7 points over its last three games, and Dybantsa scored 93 points over that span - 31 points out of a team average of just under 80 is a major portion of the scoring. If Dybantsa has an off night, the rest of the team may not be capable of picking up the slack. As of now, their first-round opponent is to be determined (Texas/NC State). However, if BYU can get by one of the teams vying for the play-in spot, the ceiling looks quite low.

The Cougars lost 10 of their last 17 games, including a 22-point loss to Cincinnati. BYU has to be flawless to advance very far in this tournament. We feel your money would be better placed elsewhere.

Enjoy the games throughout the week. Best of luck with your picks.