The New Orleans Saints hope to keep their impressive eight-game winning streak going as they travel to Atlanta for their second matchup in three weeks with the Falcons.
The Saints dominated the first matchup in New Orleans in what surprisingly wound up being Taysom Hill’s first start as a professional quarterback. But with revenge on their minds, will the Falcons be able to adjust and – most importantly – cover as 3-point home underdogs? Let’s breakdown this NFC South rematch.
*Odds courtesy of BettingPros Consensus
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the Saints vs. Falcons >>
Details
- Opening Line: Falcons +3
- Last meeting: November 22, 2020, Saints 24-9
 |
NO
|
-3
EVEN
|
o46
-110
|
-148
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIEW PICKS |
ATL
|
+3
-120
|
u46
-110
|
+130
|
View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Saints vs. Falcons >>
Overview
After Drew Brees went down with broken ribs and a punctured lung, many thought the Saints would turn to Jameis Winston as the team’s starter. I wrote our BettingPros preview article for that game under the assumption Winston would be under center. And I took the Falcons +5 because of it.
Well, you know what they say about assuming things…
Sean Payton pulled a rabbit out of his hat and threw his pet project Hill into starting duties. And for the most part, it worked. Hill was competent as a passer, completing 18-of-23 throws for 233 yards while rushing for 49 yards and two scores. The Falcons came out flat after the bye week and mustered only 248 yards in a 24-9 drubbing.
However, the Falcons might have been misled just like we were heading into that game. And Hill followed up his solid performance against the Falcons with an ugly outing in a grinder against the short-handed Broncos. Hill completed just nine passes for 78 yards and an interception while rushing for two more scores.
Unsurprisingly, the Saints offense isn’t nearly as dynamic with Hill under center. Alvin Kamara, in particular, has felt the brunt of the offensive struggles. The dynamic tailback has just 99 rushing yards and only one reception in his last two games.
I expect Falcons interim head coach Raheem Morris to develop a better defensive gameplan against Hill and the Saints with the benefit of film.
The reason New Orleans has maintained its winning streak has been its defense. The Saints haven’t given up more than 13 points and 281 total yards in a month. You can’t run on them, and their secondary has stepped up after a concerning start to the year.
The Falcons are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Las Vegas Raiders 43-6. The final score is rather misleading, as Atlanta only out-gained the Raiders 304-243. The Raiders just imploded, turning the ball over five times.
It’s worth noting that Atlanta’s defense has improved since Morris took over. The Falcon’s pass defense still is one of the league’s worst, but that’s not a weakness Hill can exploit.
The other good news for Atlanta is that Julio Jones claims to be feeling good despite being tagged as questionable to play Sunday. I’d expect Jones to suit up.
Trends
- New Orleans has won straight up and covered its last four games.
- The Falcons are 4-2 ATS since Dan Quinn was fired.
- The over is 7-4 in Saints games and 5-6 in Falcons games in 2020.
Bottom Line
The last time I wrote about this matchup, I gave out the Falcons +5 and got burnt. This time, I’ll merely lean with the home underdog. But the play I really like is the under. The Saints defense has been lights out this season, while Atlanta’s defense should have answers for shutting down the Taysom Hill experience.
The pick: Under 46, lean Falcons +3
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.