With bye weeks officially beginning this week, we will have one less game to bet on for Week 4. However, there are some terrific lines to exploit now before there is too much more movement. We will be taking advantage of games featuring teams that have an inflated reputation because of recent competition, including the Lions, Bills, and Bears, oh my! Cheesy joke aside, let’s breakdown five of the best bets for this week. See the consensus lines and odds for all games here.
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Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
The books need to stop making the spread one-score against the Chiefs, especially when the opponent is the Detroit Lions. Yes, Detroit is technically undefeated. Also yes, the Lions’ two starting outside corners are banged up with a hamstring and knee issue. Expect Mahomes to test Darius Slay’s hamstring deep early on, attempting to run with Mecole Hardman. If that wasn’t enough, Travis Kelce has a 17 percent matchup advantage, per Pro Football Focus, with a safety that’s eight inches shorter than him. Good luck. This game is also played on turf, which showcases true speed for these athletes, which Kansas City has a lot of. The Chiefs will clear the spread for the fourth time this season. Lock this bet in now before the line moves on Sunday.
New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills
The Bills again look to be without electric rookie running back Devin Singletary, who is one of the playmakers on this offense that can turn the field quickly. The other is John Brown, who faces a tough matchup with Stephon Gilmore. The Patriots will load up to stop Josh Allen and his big arm, as that is the offense’s biggest weapon. And they can do that, shown by the zero passing touchdowns allowed this season. Without that, do you think Frank Gore keeps up with the Patriots? Essentially, that’s what’s left. The Bills’ defense is good, ranking fifth in points allowed (15.7) and fifth in yards allowed (299.7). However, they have faced the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. In their first actual test, they face one of the most stacked Patriots’ teams of all time, even without Antonio Brown. Also, look for James White to be a featured weapon in his first game back after the birth of his child. He is a matchup nightmare.
Houston Texans (-3.5) vs Carolina Panthers
Houston is a Week 1, 58-yard field goal away from being undefeated. Meanwhile, Kyle Allen now has two solid games under his belt to the New Orleans Saints in Week 17 (resting players) and the Arizona Cardinals last week. With all due respect, those are bad defense he has faced. Allen has made accurate throws and good decisions, two things that cannot be said about Cam Newton, but he will be under pressure from JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus all game long. Also, the Texans now have two good games of film on Allen. Look for him to finally be tested and for the Texans to clear the spread for the second week in a row.
Minnesota Vikings (+2) at Chicago Bears
Mitch Trubisky finally shows some skill at quarterback in the Monday night game, then almost immediately the football Gods take away his one passing option that was finding the most success. On a short week, the Bears have to prepare for the Vikings to come to town. This Chicago defense is very good, but this Vikings’ offense has proven it can move the ball with Dalvin Cook on the ground and even with Kirk Cousins through the air. Simply, Chicago won the two games last season because they held the Vikings’ rushing attack in check. With Cook proving he can run against anyone this season, success on the ground will slow down the Chicago pass rush and ultimately create play-action headaches with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs downfield. This will be a close, hard-fought game, but the Vikings have too many playmakers on both sides of the ball playing well for them to lose to Chicago on a short week. I like them to win outright.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 44)
Here we go, another low-scoring prime time matchup. The Steelers enter this game averaging the fifth-lowest point average in the league at 16.3. The Bengals aren’t much better, at just 18.0 (eighth-lowest). So far, Mason Rudolph has rarely passed the ball downfield, with 28.5 percent of his passes coming behind the line of scrimmage and another 33.3 percent within 10 yards. On top of that, he’s completed just five passes of more than 10 yards. The Steelers will run the football and pass short routes, keeping the clock ticking. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has completed just 58.6 percent of his passes with a 27/24 touchdown-turnover ratio in prime time games. Expect big plays and points to be few in this one.
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.