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NFL Best Bets: Week 7 (2019)

by October 18, 2019

This Week 7 began with reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes leaving the game with a knee injury. At the time of writing, we do not know its severity, but there seems to be a sense of optimism surrounding the Chiefs, luckily. And after a strange Week 6 that was full of upsets and teams not showing up, there is a sense of optimism that this week will be much better from an entertainment value and for betting. However, I cannot promise your team will avoid the nightmare that is the NFL officials, who seem to be out for blood this season.

To bring some optimism to your betting for this week, here are the five best NFL bets.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here.

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Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are a get-right team, meaning struggling offenses can play them and get their confidence back. The Rams’ struggles offensively begin and end with Jared Goff, who has been unable to get anything going under pressure this season. Under no pressure, Goff has completed 74.8 percent of his passes this season. This completion percentage drops to an atrocious 43.4 percent when he is under pressure.

Luckily for Goff and the Rams, the Falcons have been unable to get pressure. They have a league-worst 2.54 sack percentage and 0.8 sacks per game. This has only gotten worse, as the team has failed to get a sack during its last three games. With cornerback Desmond Trufant logging a couple of DNP to being the week, this defense may look worse than normal against a Rams offense looking to get its mojo back. The Falcons are also just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games.

San Francisco 49ers (-9) at Washington Redskins
The 49ers have an average point differential of +16.6. This includes games against both the Rams and Browns, who are struggling but are much better than this Redskins team. You could even argue that this is the worst team San Francisco has faced so far, though the Bengals would have something to say about that. Case Keenum, Adrian Peterson, and Chris Thompson were all held out of practice on Wednesday. Even if they all play, they are clearly banged up, which makes a bad team worse. Offensively, Washington will not be able to move the ball against a defense that allows just 150 passing yards and 12.8 points per game. Defensively, Washington struggles against the run, giving up 134.0 rushing yards per game, which is bad news since the Niners’ second-ranked running game is coming to town.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3)
Coming off extra days of rest to play at home, the Giants get the benefit of health in this matchup. The offensive line is also playing well for them, allowing Daniel Jones to be sacked just 10 times. With him getting protection up front, the combination of the running game with Saquon Barkley and the play-action with Evan Engram and Golden Tate will be enough to lift the Giants over the Cardinals, who struggle defensively. They are by far the worst against opposing tight ends in the league, and they have surrendered 132.8 yards per game on the ground. They have even surrendered nearly 300 yards through the air. Defensively, the Giants’ secondary also struggles, but they have been playing a bit better recently and will benefit from the extra days to game plan against the mobile Kyler Murray.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
With neither team fielding great offenses and Jacksonville having the clear edge between the defensive groups, they are in for a bounce-back week. Defensively, neither team can stop the run, but Cincinnati is the worst in the league, giving up 5.3 yards per carry. This is bad news for Week 7, with the Jaguars and Leonard Fournette coming to town. Fournette is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, and he has totaled 405 yards just on the ground over the past three weeks. The Bengals may also be without cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, which only makes their bad defense worse. The Jaguars’ biggest weakness (their run defense) is essentially neutralized by how bad that Bengals offensive line is. Also, are you really going to bet against “Minshew Mania” in favor of a winless Bengals team?

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (Under 44.5)
I discussed above how the Bengals are the worst in the league in yards per rush, but the Jaguars are actually the second-worst, giving up 5.2 yards per carry. This should lead to both teams attempting to pound the rock, which will keep the clock ticking and limit the possessions. We’re also talking about two sub-par offenses, with neither team averaging over 20 points. Trends are also on our side, with the total hitting the under in six of Jacksonville’s last nine games, as well as five of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

Week 6 Results: 2-3
Season to Date: 16-13-1

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.