Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.
Both of these teams feature young arms that may cause trust issues for fans (and bettors) throughout this season. However, both Josh Allen of Buffalo and Sam Darnold of the Jets are primed to take a leap forward in 2019. Does that mean we'll see shades of Cam Newton against Drew Brees in Week 1? Probably not. However, this is an intriguing battle between a pair of teams poised to make up ground in the AFC East. You could make a strong argument that the Bills and Jets are in the same exact spot as rebuilding franchises, hence the tight point spread (NYJ -3) for Sunday’s game.
Sign up now at PointsBet and a $100 bonus when you bet $50 >>
Details
- Opening Lines: The Jets opened at -3 and the over/under opened at 40.5. There has been no change to the spread with slight movement to the over.
- Current Line: Jets -3
- O/U: 40.5
- Location: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: FOX
- Last Meeting: December 9, 2018 - Jets defeated Bills 27-23 at Buffalo
Check out all of our consensus NFL odds for Week 1 >>
Overview
Sam Darnold looked like a franchise quarterback over the last three games of 2018, throwing for 761 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions over that span. Insert new head coach, Adam Gase, and a few playmakers at skill positions (namely RB Le'Veon Bell), and there's a reason to be optimistic with this Jets' offense. We can't overlook the other side of the ball either, where New York boasts an impressive front seven helped by the addition of rookie DL Quinnen Williams. The glaring weakness of this team is the offensive line, and it will be interesting to see if that holds the Jets back to begin the season.
As for the Bills, this game will depend on the arm (and legs) of QB Josh Allen. The Bills signed him some new receivers in John Brown and Cole Beasley, but those guys aren't exactly high-impact newcomers that move the needle too much. We can't forget about Buffalo's sneaky-good defense that ranked second in total yards allowed last season. In order to win this road contest, the Bills will need to maintain that level on the defensive side of the ball while hoping Allen can piece together enough big plays to impact the scoreboard.
Trends
- The Jets were 5-11 ATS in 2018.
- Buffalo is 5-3 ATS over their last 8 games.
- The Jets have gone 9-6-1 ATS over the past two years.
- The total went over 11 of last 15 times Buffalo has been an away underdog.
- The Jets have gone over the total 5 of their last 7 games.
- Both meetings between these teams in 2018 went over the total.
- These teams split last season with each team winning SU on the road.
Prop Bets
John Brown (BUF) more receptions than Robby Anderson (NYJ): +142
There are concerns with chemistry and the overall accuracy of QB Josh Allen, but John Brown should see a good amount of targets in this one. After all, I'm not expecting the Bills to muster any sort of running game against a tough Jets' front seven. That could force them to the air against a vulnerable New York secondary. On the other hand, Robby Anderson only topped four receptions two times last season. Now the Jets have more mouths to feed on offense, and the game script could feature a running approach from the Jets down the stretch. I'll take the plus money with Brown here.
Bottom Line
I'm seeing this line moving to Jets -2.5 at some sportsbooks, but the general consensus lands on the home team favored by three points. I'll take either of those for Sunday. New York has the defensive resources to limit Josh Allen on the ground and stifle any traditional running game the Bills will try to establish. That will force Buffalo to rely on Allen's questionable arm accuracy, which tips the scales in favor of the Jets. On top of that, Allen hasn't been nearly as effective on the road throughout his young career, and this is a tough opening game for him to gain any sort of rhythm. It doesn't hurt that the Jets brought in a few more playmakers to help QB Sam Darnold. Give me the Jets by a field goal.
Pick: Jets -3
Sign up now at PointsBet and get up to $1,000 back on your first two bets! >>
Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.