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The 2019-2020 NFL playoffs are just days away, and the familiar teams are near the top with bye weeks going to the Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Packers. In the NFC, three teams ruled the conference at 13-3, with the Saints being left out due to tiebreakers but still getting a home game as they welcome in the Vikings this weekend. From a futures market perspective, the expected favorites are at the top with the Ravens (+220), 49ers (+400), and Chiefs (+450) leading the way as the most likely to bring home the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season. While all three of those teams justifiably at the top, I still have my eye on a fourth that as much as I want to; I can’t look away from.
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Favorite value bet to win Super Bowl LIV
If I were to tell you at any time over the last 10 years that heading into the postseason you could get the Patriots at double-digit odds to win the Super Bowl, you would most likely take it in a heartbeat. Admittedly, this Patriots team does feel different with its unquestioned leader quarterback Tom Brady having one of his worst seasons over that same 10 years, raking in a completion percentage of 60.8% while throwing just 24 touchdowns. Even still, the Patriots clawed their way to a 12-4 record and only needed to beat a 4-11 Miami team at home to clinch yet another first-round bye and give an aging Brady a much-needed rest. That’s when Ryan Fitzpatrick became the first quarterback in NFL history to beat the Patriots with all three divisional foes, completing a 5-yard pass to Mike Gesicki in the final seconds of the game to force the Patriots into a Wild Card spot against the Tennesee Titans.
Make no bones about it, this Patriots team only sniffed the playoffs because of a defense that has put up historical numbers that rank this unit among the league’s all-time greats. Through 16 regular-season games, the Patriots allowed just 14 points and 276 yards per game, leading the league in both by a wide margin. Probably most impressively, the Patriots also led the league in a turnover differential of +21, which I expect to be a theme they bring into the postseason starting in game one against Ryan Tannehill on Saturday night. In his 11 games against the Patriots, Tannehill is 4-7 with a touchdown to interception ratio of 15:11 and a QB rating of 84.7.
The bottom line for me is despite the Patriots’ offensive struggles all season, a new season starts Saturday and double-digit odds look too good to pass up on a quarterback in Brady who still has two elite weapons in wide receivers K’Neal Harry and Julian Edelman. Without Harry for much of the season, Brady was left without a true downfield threat, which he gets back in spades with a fully healthy Harry for the postseason. You have to go all the way back to the 2010 season for the last time the Patriots weren’t at least involved in an AFC Championship game, and I like the value that trend offers in this spot to continue.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.