There is often one megastar dealt at the trade deadline that no one saw coming, a move that instantly makes the team on the receiving end so much better. This season, that move is the Jets trading lockdown defensive back Sauce Gardner to the Indianapolis Colts.
Expectations were low for the Colts coming into the season. After losing to the Steelers in Week 9, they are tied with the Patriots and Broncos for the best record in the NFL (7-2). However, many fans have been slow to embrace the Colts. But this trade may change some minds and alter NFL futures bets.
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NFL Futures Bets: Indianapolis Colts
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Colts Super Bowl LX Odds
Before Week 1, the Colts’ Super Bowl LX odds were +10000. With each win, they've gotten shorter, falling from +8000 after Week 1 to +6600 following their Week 2 victory, and so on. They jumped back up to +4000 after the loss to the Rams. But quickly moved back down, falling to +2200, +1700, +1200 and +1100.
After the loss to Pittsburgh, they moved back up to +1300. But in the wake of trading for Sauce Gardner, their odds have dropped back to +1100. Only six teams have shorter odds:
How are they a value play with the seventh-best odds? A bet has value when the odds do not reflect the true probability of an outcome. Let's examine why this is true for the Colts.
Sauce Gardner Impact
The Colts have been good enough to beat most teams. But when the playoffs roll around, 'good enough' will not be, well, good enough. They'll need to get past teams like the Chiefs and Bills. That will be hard to do if they can't stop the pass. Adding Sauce Gardner gives them a great chance to do just that.
Gardner hasn't played as well as he did in his rookie season the last couple of years. However, Gardner is still widely regarded as one of the best cornerbacks in the game. According to a new Pro Football Focus (PFF) metric - lockdown Percentage - he is still the best at keeping receivers from getting open (74.1%).
Adding Gardner to the team’s already solid defensive backs, the Colts’ pass defense will get exponentially better as the season goes on.
The big test, of course, is coming up; the Colts play the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 12. If they keep Patrick Mahomes and the passing game from going off and win that game, their Super Bowl LX odds are going to shift dramatically. You may want to put something down on them now to maximize your potential payout before their odds get shorter than +1100.
