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NFL Futures: Favorite Value Bets to Win Super Bowl LIV (2019)

by September 4, 2019

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As we prepare for the start of the 2019 regular season, we’ve asked our writers to provide their picks for the best value bets to win Super Bowl LIV. Check out our consensus odds and those from each of the major sportsbooks.

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Houston Texans (+3000)
I’ll take a flier on Houston, who has the offensive firepower and a stout defense to make a run in the AFC. Saying goodbye to Jadeveon Clowney hurts, but J.J. Watt is still there to lead a defense that should rank in the top half of the NFL. Offensively, I think this is the year Deshaun Watson truly ascends. His offensive line just got better with the addition of Laremy Tunsil. He’s got a diverse set of weapons in DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, Duke Johnson, and the newly-acquired Kenny Stills. The running game will be fine, and it’s been proven that you don’t need an elite tailback to win a Super Bowl. The AFC South is theirs to lose after Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement, so they have a clear path to at least one home playoff game. The Texans aren’t my first choice to win the Super Bowl, but at 30/1, I’ll take a shot on a team with plenty of upside.
– Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)

For a value bet to win the Super Bowl, I limited my picks to teams from the AFC only. The NFC is a gauntlet of good teams that is too difficult to handicap. In the AFC, many will foresee a two-team race between the Chiefs and the Patriots. I will take a shot on the Texans who have the recipe to beat either team. First, their pass rush is good enough to get to the quarterback rushing four, while dropping the rest in coverage. This is how the Giants were able to beat Tom Brady in both Super Bowls and is a proven way to stymy a Bill Belichick offense. The Texans also have the offensive firepower to beat both, as Deshaun Watson has plenty of weapons at his disposable. If his receiving corps can stay healthy (namely Keke Coutee and Will Fuller), Watson may be in for a career year. The Texans’ offensive line may be their downfall, but they did make an attempt to strengthen this unit with the trade for Laremy Tunsil. The Texans are the defending AFC South champions and look to be the favorite in the division once again. Houston at +3000 is a great value to come out of what should be a much weaker conference and play for a championship.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Minnesota Vikings (+2900)
At this point, last year arrows were pointing up for the Vikings, fresh off a 13-3 record in 2017 and last offseason’s addition of Kirk Cousins. But after a disappointing playoff miss in 2018, fans and pundits alike have significantly soured on Minnesota. Let the myopia of the masses be your profit opportunity, as 29-to-1 odds for a team as well-built as Minnesota is strong value. Their offense is headed by a stable and decidedly above-average quarterback in Cousins who throws to arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the league in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Dalvin Cook, now healthy after two injury-riddled seasons, is capable of posting ~5.0 YPC while being a bell-cow workhorse. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense was fourth-best in the NFL last year according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Rams and Saints are still the favorites to come out of the NFC, however, the chance to earn nearly a 30x handle on your money makes Minnesota too good a bet to pass up.
– Nicholas Gerli (@nickgerli1)

Los Angeles Chargers (+1500)
The Chargers have all the parts to be a Super Bowl LIV champion. They balance an explosive offense with one of the best defenses in the NFL. In 2018, defensive coordinator Gus Bradley guided the eighth-most efficient defense despite dealing with a plethora of injuries. The return of tight end Hunter Henry compensates for the uncertainty of the Melvin Gordon holdout. Los Angeles was the only team to win on the road at Arrowhead Stadium last season and is fortunate to play the Chiefs’ road game in Week 17 this year. The backfield of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson should be able to keep the running game afloat until Gordon returns, and Philip Rivers remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. With the advantage of hosting their toughest non-divisional opponents (Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota), the stars have aligned for a Bolts’ Super Bowl run. I would bet this line from +1500 and above.
– Mike Randle (@RandleRant)

Cleveland Browns (+1500)
When trying to predict Super Bowl winners I first want to look at who is more likely to make a Super Bowl appearance. Especially this year, I would gravitate more towards the AFC teams. The NFC has four legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the Saints, Rams, Eagles, and Bears. They also have four more teams who could make a Super Bowl run without surprising anyone in the Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, and Falcons. On the other hand, the AFC has (arguably) just two legitimate contenders in the Patriots and Chiefs, while the Browns, Chargers, and Texans can also stake a claim. For that reason alone, it seems like betting on an AFC team could provide better value. Among AFC teams, the Browns at +1500 are very intriguing. They looked formidable to end the 2018 season and they added Odell Beckham, Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, Greedy Williams, Morgan Burnett, and Kareem Hunt in the offseason. Cleveland might very well have the most balanced roster in the NFL. The inexperience is why you’re getting a line of 15/1, and that makes the Browns the best value bet to win the Super Bowl.
– Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)

Dallas Cowboys (+2800)
The Cowboys offer some value as a Super Bowl contender at their current odds. The Cowboys get a fairly easy schedule this season that includes facing the AFC East while also getting four games to beat up on the Redskins and Giants. The Cowboys have a strong offensive arsenal, one of the best offensive lines in the league, and a solid defense. They are a balanced team which should make the playoffs and contend for the NFC title in a wide-open conference.
– Brad Richter (@rotopilot)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1800)
From high school to the NFL, football largely comes down to ability (or lack thereof) at the quarterback position. Looking at the AFC North, the odds are tilted towards a team in Cleveland that not only brings back an unproven coach but a quarterback who finished 2018 outside of the top 10 in virtually every quarterback metric you can track. Ditto to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. Not only does Pittsburgh bring back a fully healthy and proven Ben Roethlisberger with one of the most experienced offensive lines in the AFC, but a revamped defense who is drawing comparisons to the one they had during their 2008 Super Bowl run. Incoming ILB Devin Bush is already the odds-on Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite and is increasingly expected to be the centerpiece to a defense Pittsburgh has had to win largely in spite of over the past five years. I expect this team to win their division, secure a bye, and meet Brady’s Bunch in the AFC Championship once again. At nearly 20/1 odds, hedging will guarantee a profit on what I see as the best value play of the 2019 season.
– TJ Perun (@JohnnyCovers)

Chicago Bears (+1900)
“DA BEARS!” are my favorite pick to win the Super Bowl. Another year and offseason in Nagy’s system, this team has it all. The defense should continue to be a dominant force, if not even better than last year. The offense should take a step up. The only question mark is the leader. This is a make or break year for quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. He has all the tools and weapons to make him great. I think he pulls through and takes this team all the way to the promised land to win it all. He doesn’t even have to be amazing. He just has to be decent. They brought in a monster rookie runner, David Montgomery, and Mike Davis to back him up, alongside the human joystick, Tarik Cohen. Allen Robinson is a super talented star athlete who’s another year removed from his ACL tear. Last year, with all the question marks, and the first-year coach, receivers, Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, with a rusher who didn’t fit the scheme, Jordan Howard, they still went 12-4 and made it into the playoffs. Granted, they won a lot of those games on the back of the defense, which will continue, but the offense will be even better. So, I imagine that with an upgraded offense, and a more experienced and cohesive team in 2019, they should win more games than they did in 2018. While the Vikings and Packers will give the Bears a run for their money, DA BEARS should win the division and take home the Lombardi Trophy through an NFC championship and Super Bowl win.
– Tal Malachovsky (@fantasyscouter)

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