Last week we looked at our experts’ favorite bets to lead the NFL in passing for the 2019 season. The odds were courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and they are also taking bets on the 2019 league leader in TD passes. This will be the focus of our latest collaborative article, but we’ll first check out the odds.
What is your favorite bet to lead the league in passing TDs?
Matt Ryan (ATL): +420
In 2018 Matt Ryan tossed 35 touchdowns which was tied for the third-most with Russell Wilson among active quarterbacks. Ryan also has a plethora of worthy passing options like Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, and Devonta Freeman. Oh yeah and then there is Julio Jones who is an absolute athletic freak when catching the football for the last seven or eight years. The Falcons even changed their offensive coordinator this offseason as Steve Sarkisian got replaced by Dirk Koetter — who has worked with Ryan in the past. The sky seems to be the limit for “Matty Ice” and the gang this year.
– Matthew Catalano (@MatthewCatala16)
Drew Brees (NO): +1100
This is a really tough bet to figure out, but I’m going to go with one of the most reliable QBs in the league in Brees. Yes, he’s 40, but he sure didn’t look like a 39-year-old in 2018 when he threw 32 touchdown passes. Keep in mind that he was still able to put up that number even after throwing just three touchdowns in his final four games of the season. And then he sat out Week 17! I expect the Falcons to be much more competitive this season, which means that the Saints will have a lot more to play for later in the season. With all the weapons at his disposal, I think Brees is the best value pick available.
– Philip Wood (@Phil_Wood_Jr)
Russell Wilson (SEA): +1100
In 2019, Russell Wilson’s 427 pass attempts were his fewest since the 2013 season. However, his 35 touchdown passes were the most of his career. This followed the 2017 season in which he led the NFL with 34 touchdown passes. To summarize? We have a franchise quarterback in his prime, who just became the highest paid player in the league, on a team that drafted two wide receivers in the top four rounds of the NFL Draft. While the conservative nature of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer may scare bettors away, Wilson’s career high in touchdowns coinciding with a five-year low in pass attempts provides incredible potential. If his passing volume increases even slightly, Wilson is an amazing value at +1100.
– Mike Randle (@RandleRant)
Carson Wentz (PHI): +1800
The only obstacle in between Carson Wentz and a monster 2019 season is another injury. In 2017 Carson played just 13 games and finished with 1 less passing TD than league leader Russell Wilson. In 2018, Carson rushed back off a serious injury while playing through another to join an underwhelming group of offensive weapons led by a new offensive coordinator. For some QB’s these issues are an obvious recipe for disaster, but Carson still managed a 31 TD 16 game pace. When Carson made his debut last season, his top WR’s were Agholor, Jordan Matthews, and Josh Perkins. The running game was being led by Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement, and Josh Adams. They weren’t healthy and lacked the proper depth to compensate for injuries. After investing 3 top 60 picks in the offense, along with adding Jordan Howard and Desean Jackson, the Eagles offense is locked and loaded as one of the top units in the league. Alshon, Desean, Agholor, Arcega-Whiteside, Ertz, and Goedert are going to strike fear into opposing defenses week in and week out. Desean will be the most dangerous deep threat Carson has had in his career by a wide margin, apologies to Torrey Smith. Howard and Miles Sanders supply the team with a significantly more reliable run game than the 2018 core of players who finished 30th with 3.9 YPC. Wentz was on pace for 41 TD’s in 2017, and with all the offseason acquisitions its reasonable to project a number in that ballpark in 2019, which makes him a great bet at +1800. He is tied for the 9th best odds, and barring injury its hard to project him finishing that low on the final season TD leaderboard.
– James Esposito (@PropZillaa)
Jared Goff (LAR): +2600
I’m not sure I like any of the odds in this prop, but Goff having the 13th-best odds doesn’t seem right. He had 32 touchdowns last year even though he fell off after Cooper Kupp’s injury and at one point had two touchdowns in a period of four games late in the season. I doubt he’ll sink below that 30-touchdown threshold, which should put him in the top 10, but I think he has 35-touchdown upside. The Rams added some offensive line depth in the draft and there’s no doubt Sean McVay has been working all offseason after the dud in the Super Bowl. I expect another top season for this offense and that starts with Goff.
– Adam Zdroik (@RotoZdroik)
Deshaun Watson (HOU): +3200
Even without Hill on the depth chart I still have Mahomes projected for the most passing TD’s in the league. While I do still think he’s a good bet, my favorite on this list is DeShaun Watson. I currently have Watson with the 4th highest TD projection, and he has the 14th highest odds to win. He was bound to regress after his historic 9.1% TD rate as a rookie, but he regressed a bit more than he should have last season. While I don’t expect Fuller to be 100% all year…if he, Hopkins and Coutee can all stay healthy, then Watson has to be among the favorites.
– Nick Zylak (@nickzylakFFA)