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NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 14

Lamar Jackson

Somehow, there are only four weeks remaining in the NFL regular season. It will long go down in history as one to remember, partially for scheduling occurrences like the one playing out this week. The transition time between Weeks 13 and 14 has been slim to none. By the time the Ravens completed their win over the Cowboys on Tuesday night, the kickoff for Thursday Night Football was less than 48 hours away.

Crazy circumstances can't stop the ebb and flow of the NFL betting market, though. Once again, there are plenty of notable line moves for bettors to consider when handicapping the Week 14 slate.

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Line Movement Analysis for Week 14

Refer to the side-by-side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 14 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.

Game Opening Lines Current Odds
Patriots at Rams Rams -6.5; O/U 45 Rams -5; O/U 45
Texans at Bears Texans -1.5; O/U 46 Pick'em; O/U 45
Cowboys at Bengals Cowboys -3; O/U 43.5 Cowboys -3.5; O/U 42.5
Titans at Jaguars Titans -10; O/U 54 Titans -9; O/U 52.5
Chiefs at Dolphins Chiefs -7; O/U 49 Chiefs -7.5; O/U 49.5
Cardinals at Giants Cardinals -3; O/U 45 Cardinals -1.5; O/U 45
Vikings at Buccaneers Buccaneers -5.5; O/U 52.5 Buccaneers -6.5; O/U 51.5
Broncos at Panthers Panthers -4 Panthers -4
Colts at Raiders Colts -2; O/U 52 Colts -2.5; O/U 51.5
Jets at Seahawks Seahawks -15; O/U 47.5 Seahawks -13.5; O/U 46.5
Packers at Lions Packers -7.5; O/U 55 Packers -9; O/U 55
Washington at 49ers 49ers -4; O/U 43.5 49ers -3; O/U 43
Saints at Eagles Saints -6.5; O/U 45.5 Saints -7; O/U 43.5
Falcons at Chargers Chargers -1.5; O/U 49.5 Falcons -2.5; O/U 49.5
Steelers at Bills Steelers -2.5; O/U 46.5 Bills -2.5; O/U 46
Ravens at Browns Ravens -2.5; O/U 45.5 Ravens -1; O/U 46.5

Week 14 Point Spread Movement Analysis

Odds courtesy of 888sport

Colts at Raiders

-2.5
-121
NL
-159
JOIN NOW
+2.5
EVEN
NL
+140

The Move: Opening spread of Colts (-2) to Colts (-3)

This isn’t necessarily the largest line move in terms of points, but it is significant nonetheless. The betting market is showing the Colts a lot of respect by moving the needle up to the key number of three in this spot. The Raiders haven’t been playing great ball of late, but they remain very much alive in the AFC playoff race. Indianapolis also hasn’t been lighting the world on fire recently, either. After getting rocked at home by the Titans, the Colts were fortunate to come up with a turnover in the red zone to escape with a win over the Texans last week.

The two teams are separated by just a single game in the standings heading into Sunday’s clash. Indianapolis’ adjusted statistics are much more appealing, but do they warrant laying a full field goal on the road? Raiders backers should look to get in on the current three-point spread.

Jets at Seahawks

+13.5
-112
NL
+500
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-13.5
-109
NL
-715

The Move: Opening spread Seahawks (-15) to Seahawks (-13.5) 

It takes guts to back a team that is yet to win a game this late in the season, but that is just what many sharps are doing with the Jets. Despite no outright victories, New York has covered four times. They came within five seconds of picking up win number one last week, on the same day that the Seahawks were embarrassed by Colt McCoy and the Giants at home.

While recent form certainly plays a part in this line move, perhaps the two teams truly aren't as far apart as public perception would like to believe. It's hard to lay two touchdowns in the NFL, and the line running through 14 points is noteworthy.

Steelers at Bills

+2
-113
o47
-110
+105
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-2
-108
u47
-110
-127

The Move: Opening spread of Steelers (-2.5) to Bills (-2.5)

In what’s shaping up to be one heck of a primetime battle, the Steelers have seen the NFL betting market go against them heavily after suffering their first loss of the season last Monday. While we can debate how significant a line move through 0 is, the fact that Pittsburgh went from laying nearly a field goal to now catching that same margin is something to note.

To their credit, the Bills have given the market every reason to back them this season. After being heavily bet against in their matchup with the 49ers last week, the sharps are flipping the script here. Both teams have some question marks as far as their run games, but Buffalo certainly inspires more confidence based on recent form.

Week 14 Totals Movement Analysis

Odds courtesy of 888sport

Ravens at Browns

-2.5
-108
o46.5
-110
-130
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+2.5
-113
u46.5
-110
+108

The Move: Opening total of 45.5 up to 46.5

The perception that the Ravens and Browns are defensive-minded teams got challenged a bit this past weekend. Both Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield played exceptional football, and neither defense looked overly stingy in victories for both teams.

To see the over/under line rise ahead of this Monday night AFC North clash is interesting given the general tendency of divisional games to be lower scoring. Ultimately, both teams have shown that they can put up points while also exhibiting concerns defensively. Pay attention to where this line moves from here.

Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 14 of the NFL >>


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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.