NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 3

NFL bettors can learn a lot from the betting market. This education comes primarily through line movement on games. Changes to the odds, point spread, or total for a game indicate that one side has taken a significant amount of money from professional, or "sharp" bettors. In the name of both balancing their accounts and attempting to align with the "sharp side" of the game, sportsbooks react by adjusting their lines to try and attract money on the opposite side.

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Line Movement Analysis for Week 3

With the first two weeks of the NFL season complete, the betting market is starting to get a better feel for how the 32 teams stack up. After the rash of injuries that we saw in Week 2, several of the Week 3 lines have proven volatile. While it can be tough to make sound betting decisions when the health of key players is up in the air, analyzing the betting market is one of the best ways to gain insight. We have seen point spreads move as much as 4 full points this week. The largest movement on a total thus far has actually the 4.5-point move for Thursday night's showdown between the Dolphins and Jaguars.

Refer to the side by side comparison of the opening lines and current odds for all Week 2 games in the table below. For games that saw especially significant movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.

All current odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Week 3 Point Spread Movement Analysis

49ers at Giants

Injuries have dominated the storylines around this week's 49ers-Giants game. From the host of players both teams lost last week to the discussions regarding the poor turf at MetLife Stadium, which San Francisco believes was the culprit of so many of its key players going down in last week's game against the Jets, injuries have been at the forefront. It's most likely these injuries that have caused a line that opened as 49ers -6.5 to move a full three points in the Giants favor. New York is now only catching 3 and a hook as the weekend approaches.

San Francisco may have won their Week 2 matchup easily, but it felt like the furthest thing from a victory. Losing defensive end Nick Bosa for the season to a torn ACL is bad enough. But the 49ers also saw running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, defensive lineman Dee Ford, and linebacker Dre Greenlaw suffer injuries of their own to varying degrees. Tight end George Kittle missed the last week's contest and remains questionable for this Sunday as well.

The Giants suffered a big injury blow last week as well when star running back Saquon Barkley went down with a torn ACL. While losing such a key offensive contributor is tough, New York figures to be in better shape than the 49ers for this week given that the rest of the team comes in mostly healthy. The Giants signed Devonta Freeman this week in an effort to fill the void left by Barkley. All told, the fact that the 49ers could be trotting out completely foreign starting lineups based on availability is the main motive behind the spread moving in the Giants' favor.

Jets at Colts

After successfully picking up their first win of the season last week, the Colts stay home and welcome in the winless Jets for a late afternoon contest. The Colts opened up as full touchdown favorites and have since taken enough money to drive the spread up a full 4 points. Indianapolis enters the weekend laying 11, one of the largest spreads we have seen so far this season.

While last week was a much-needed bounce-back for Indianapolis after they were upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, this line movement is more about what the Jets haven't been in the first two weeks. New York has easily looked like the worst team in football. Many figure Adam Gase isn't much longer for the job, and the Jets are also dealing with injuries to several offensive skill players which could leave a depleted cupboard of talent come Sunday.

With New York also dealing with injuries at all three levels of the defense, the Colts should have no trouble establishing a power ground game on the back of rookie Jonathan Taylor. The bottom line is that the Jets have given bettors no good reason to back them through the first two weeks. While the 11-point spread feels like a good spot for buyback, any bettor who does take the Jets has to have a very strong stomach.

Packers at Saints

The Packers opened the season with a pair of dominant offensive performances against divisional foes. The resistance Aaron Rodgers and Co. will face from the Saints' defense on Sunday night figures to be stronger than the preceding two weeks. Nonetheless, this hasn't stopped the betting market from moving the line a full 3 points in Green Bay's favor. The Saints are now only -3.5 favorites after opening at -6.5

Recency bias in the betting market cannot be overlooked when diagnosing the cause of a full field goal's worth of movement on this spread. The most recent game either team has played was the Saints' Week 2 venture to Las Vegas on Monday Night Football. With no Michael Thomas, Drew Brees looked very ordinary, and New Orleans was upset by the Raiders. Thomas is yet to practice this week and is presumably a longshot to play Sunday.

If New Orleans is in fact again without their biggest offensive weapon, it’s safe to say that the defense will have to play better than they did Monday night. Las Vegas QB Derek Carr picked the Saints secondary apart, and one would figure Rodgers is certainly capable of doing the same. Take out the added element of a raucous Superdome crowd and communication will be easier for Green Bay's offense as well. The first two weeks seem to indicate that these two teams are much closer than the opening 6.5-point spread would indicate.

Week 3 Totals Movement Analysis

Rams at Bills

One of the more intriguing matchups of the early window Sunday pits a pair of undefeated teams against one another. The matchup between the Rams and Bills has seen the over/under rise from an opening 44.5 up to 47.

This is a tough game to figure out. While both offenses have been fun to watch through the first two weeks, both Los Angeles and Buffalo bring formidable defenses to the table as well. For the Rams, Jalen Ramsey figures to shadow top Buffalo wideout Stefon Diggs throughout the game. Josh Allen will be forced to look for John Brown and Cole Beasley more in this one.

The Bills have a shutdown corner of their own in Tre'Davious White and a whole fleet of pass rushers capable of causing chaos. While the Rams offensive line has been much improved over last season, one could ask the question of whether or not they have truly been tested. While the opening line of 44.5 feels on the low side, the current 47 almost feels too high. It will be fascinating to see how this game plays out.

Titans at Vikings

The Titans and Vikings enter Sunday's game on completely different sides of the spectrum after two games. Tennessee has jumped out to a 2-0 start to the season while Minnesota appears to have larger issues than expected, particularly on defense. The point spread has seen a 2.5-point move in favor of the Titans while the total has shot up a full 3 points from the opening 45.5 to 48.5.

By my account, back-to-back impressive showings from the Titans' offense and major question marks on the Vikings' defense are the two keys behind this total move. Tennessee went up and down the field in Week 1 and would've finished with much more than the 16 points they ultimately scored if not for kicking woes. Last week against Jacksonville was no different. Even without top wideout A.J. brown, Ryan Tannehill and the Titans still put up 33 points.

The defense situation got even worse for Minnesota when they lost linebacker Anthony Barr for the season to a torn pectoral muscle. With so many key contributors from years gone by no longer on the active roster, these Vikings have a whole different feel about them. It will be up to Kirk Cousins and a young offense to keep them in games. While Minnesota should score in this one, they will give up even more. All signs say the upward trajectory of the total line makes sense.

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.