Week 11 of the NFL season is here, and to close things out, we’ll see the Las Vegas Raiders host the Dallas Cowboys. Here, you’ll find my top NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props.
The Cowboys are not only coming off a bye week, but this game marks the debut of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who they acquired from the New York Jets in exchange for a second-round pick in 2026 and a first-round pick in 2027.
Below are the three best bets for this game.
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Week 11’s Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: Cowboys vs. Raiders
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cowboys -3.5 (-108)
The hook makes me a bit more trepidatious considering how bad the Cowboys’ defense has been this season, but I just cannot back the Raiders. Simply put: This team stinks.
The Cowboys are averaging 29.2 points (fourth), 378.4 total yards (fourth) and 257.8 passing yards (third) per game. Conversely, the Raiders are averaging 15.4 points (31st), 272.7 total yards (30th), 185.2 passing yards (27th) and 87.4 rushing yards (29th) per game.
Their running game will have to contend with one of the best run defenders in the game, as Quinned Williams will suit up along the middle of the defensive line for the Cowboys.
Additionally, Raiders quarterback Geno Smith has been a disaster, throwing one interception in all but two games. His best game of the season arguably came in Week 3 against the Washington Commanders - 289 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions - but the Raiders still lost 41-24.
The Cowboys’ defense has been playing slightly better lately, allowing 224.3 passing yards per game over their last three, which is down from their season-long average of 254.4.
Sure, the Cowboys have an exploitable defense, but I just don’t trust the Raiders whatsoever, even at home, to take advantage.
Hard pass.
Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions (-154)
While the Cowboys’ defense has been abysmal this season, I did mention that it has shown slight improvement. However, more importantly, the Cowboys primarily play Cover 2 and Cover 3.
Against those coverages this season, Smith has completed a large number of his passes (75.9%), but he’s thrown just one touchdown and six interceptions.
Not only that, but the Cowboys have had one interception in three of their last four games. Smith is second in the NFL in interceptions with 12 - he has more interceptions than touchdown passes (11).
The Cowboys have intercepted at least one pass in three of their last four games and Smith has terrible touchdown-to-interception numbers against the coverages the Cowboys primarily play. It’s also likely the Raiders will be trailing.
Smith will throw at least one interception.
Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-185)
Javonte Williams has been the undisputed bell-cow back for the Cowboys this season, receiving 74.7% of the Cowboys’ running back carries. He’s averaging 18.2 touches per game and has nine total touchdowns.
In a game where the Cowboys should be leading, he’ll face a Raiders defense surrendering one rushing touchdown per game and that has allowed two over their last three games. Going a bit further, they have allowed six scores on the ground over their last five games.
Williams has scored a touchdown in six out of nine games this season, including in four of his last six. The game script should be massively in his favor to continue getting touches. He should find the end zone yet again.
