Week 14 of the NFL season is here, and to close things out, we’ll see the Los Angeles Chargers host the Philadelphia Eagles. Here, you’ll find my top NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props.
The Eagles are coming off back-to-back losses, losing 24-21 to the Dallas Cowboys and 24-15 to the Chicago Bears. The Chargers beat the Las Vegas Raiders last week, but quarterback Justin Herbert underwent surgery on his non-throwing wrist. He’s still slated to play, but you have to wonder how that could impact this game.
Below are the three best bets for this game.
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Week 14’s Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: Chargers vs. Eagles
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eagles -2.5 (-115)
The aspect of this game I’ll be most looking forward to is the Chargers’ offensive line against the Eagles’ pass rush. Heading into Week 14, the Eagles were tied for sixth in the league in pressures with 179. Here, they’re taking on a Chargers offensive line that’s allowed 194 pressures, which, heading into Week 14, ranked second, and Herbert’s 40 sacks were tied for sixth-most in the league.
When pressured (which is on 40.7% of his dropbacks), Justin Herbert has completed 47% of his passes for 889 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
I don’t necessarily think Herbert is going to turn the ball over, but with his non-throwing hand injury, while trying to avoid one of the better teams at generating pressure against his turnstile-like offensive line, I’m worried about him.
The Eagles’ offense has been up and down, but they can get to Herbert enough to get the win.
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
Heading into this game, the Chargers are allowing 0.92 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs. That’s fifth-most in the NFL. That also comes with running backs averaging just 18.92 carries per game, which ranks in the bottom six in the league.
While they’ve allowed only three rushing touchdowns, all in the same game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, their other opponents were the Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders. All four of those teams rank 25th or lower in rushing yards per game, including the Titans and Raiders at No. 31 and No. 32, respectively.
Furthermore, the Eagles run the ball 41.3% of the time, and Barkley ranks inside the top 10 in targets and receptions at the running back position. He’ll be involved often as the Chargers allow just 168.3 passing yards per game, which is the second-fewest in the NFL.
Oronde Gadsden II Over 3.5 Receptions (-112)
Since Week 3, when Oronde Gadsden really began getting involved in the Chargers’ offense, he’s posted a 15.1% target share, catching 38 out of 51 targets for 534 yards and two touchdowns.
Gadsden has four catches or more in five out of 10 games. While he hasn’t had more than three catches over his last three games, the Eagles have allowed 12 receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns over their last two games to the tight end position.
The Eagles primarily play Cover 1, Cover 3 and Cover 6. Against these coverages, Justin Herbert has completed 72.4% of his passes for 280 yards when targeting Gadsden. I’m willing to take a chance on the over.
