Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and to close things out, we’ll see two Monday Night Football games, including the Buffalo Bills on the road against the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears. Here, I’ll be focusing on the Bills-Falcons game, with my top NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props.
The Bills are coming off their first loss of the season and are now 4-1, whereas the Falcons are 2-2 and coming off a bye. In the two games before their bye, it was a bit of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. In Week 4, they beat the Commanders at home 34-27, but in Week 3, they lost to the Carolina Panthers 30-0 on the road.
See my best NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props below for this game.
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Week 6’s Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: Falcons vs. Bills
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Falcons +4.5 (-112)
While the Falcons have been up and down over the last two weeks, I’ll take them +4.5 points at home, even though they’re playing the best team in the NFL.
When you look at the passing yards allowed rankings, the Bills are 31st and the Falcons are 32nd. The Bills allow 154 passing yards per game, while the Falcons allow just 135.
This is one of those games where, I believe, we could see a lower-scoring game than what the projected 50-point total implies due to their pass defenses.
These are also two teams that want to run the ball. The Bills call a run play 50% of the time, tied for the highest rate, while the Falcons call a run on 48.11% of their plays, sixth in the NFL.
We have two teams that don’t allow many passing yards, and they both prefer to run the ball. These two narratives lead me to believe we could have a closer, lower-scoring game, which makes me lean toward the home team getting the points.
My prediction is the Bills win the game, but the Falcons cover the spread at +4.5.
Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-170)
At -170 odds, these are staggering odds for a player to score a touchdown, but it makes far too much sense.
Here’s what the Bills are allowing per game to the running back position:
- Rushing: 19.8 carries, 98.8 yards, 4.99 yards per carry, 1.20 rushing touchdowns
- Receiving: 6 targets, 4.2 receptions, 16.6 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
This season, Bijan Robinson has rushed 64 times for 314 yards and a touchdown and has caught 18 passes for 23 yards, 270 yards and a touchdown.
Robinson is often used as both a runner and a receiver, and the Bills are allowing a bunch of production to the position, including 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game.
While they haven’t allowed any receiving touchdowns, I’d also take a chance of Robinson scoring a receiving touchdown if he records four catches or more in this game.
There are too many avenues for Robinson to score.
Michael Penix Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+750)
To close this out, I’m going with a bold pick, and that’s for Michael Penix Jr. to score a rushing touchdown. Penix is not known as a runner, but he can if he needs to. He had six carries for 21 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
Penix faces a Bills defense allowing over 42 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. I could see a situation where the Falcons get deep inside the red zone and he scrambles for a score. This is a longshot prediction.
