To close out Week 2, there are actually two games on the docket, including the Houston Texans hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, followed by the Las Vegas Raiders hosting the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here, though, I’ll be focusing on the Raiders and Chargers game, which, sadly, has a 10:00 pm ET start time. Be prepared to stay up until 1:00 am, East Coasters.
The Raiders and Chargers are both 1-0 after beating the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively. See my best NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props below.
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Week’s 2 Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Omarion Hampton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
Of all players on this slate, Omarion Hampton is the most likely, odds-wise, to score a touchdown. In Week 1, Hampton had 15 carries for 48 yards and caught two passes for 13 yards.
Why is he so likely, again, odds-wise, to score?
Usage. Usage. Usage.
In Week 1, Hampton received 93.8% of the running back carries, out-carrying Najee Harris 15-1. Of course, I don’t expect Harris to get only one carry again, as he was getting back into the flow of things after suffering an eye injury. At the same time, I also expect Hampton to see more action in the passing game.
Hampton was a great pass-catcher in college, and even if he only has 75% of the carries, that’s exceptional usage for a running back. The Raiders only allowed 60 rushing yards in Week 1, but context matters. The Patriots trailed and were behind for most of the game. Here, the Chargers are favored and should be ahead.
Still, the Raiders allowed over five yards per carry to Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson on five carries. Hampton will see volume as both a runner and in the passing game, and is on the team that’s favored. He’s in a great spot to score.
Justin Herbert 250+ Passing Yards (-120)
Justin Herbert was fantastic in Week 1, completing 25-of-34 passes for 318 yards and three touchdowns. Last season, in Week 18, he completed 28-of-36 passes for 346 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. Not only that, but in Week 1, the Raiders primarily played Cover 3 (25 dropbacks) and Cover 2 (16 dropbacks). This made up over 77% of Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s dropbacks.
Over his career, Herbert has completed 75.1% of his passes against Cover 2, along with an 8.1 yards per attempt on 437 dropbacks. He completed 68.1% of his passes on 1,031 dropbacks against Cover 3. Cover 3 is the coverage Herbert has faced the most over his career, and he has 31 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions against it. Herbert has higher completion rates against both coverages and showed in Week 18 last season that he can dominate this defense.
Keenan Allen 5+ Receptions (-137)
In Week 1, Keenan Allen had a 29.4% target share, catching seven of his 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. He also had a yards per route run of 2.13 and ran a route on 78% of Herbert’s dropbacks. Dating back to last season, Allen has caught 38 passes on 66 targets for 409 yards and a touchdown. He’s also averaging nearly 10.8 yards per catch against these coverages.
Allen has been successful against these coverages, as well as his quarterback, and had a high target percentage in Week 1. It’s lining up to be another quality game for the veteran receiver.
