When the NFL added an extra playoff team per conference to the mix, I didn’t have much of a reaction. But now that Super Wild Card Weekend is here, I’m completely in favor of this adjustment.
An extra game on Wild Card Saturday and Sunday makes adjusting from the regular season to postseason easier. More football is always a good thing, even if the extra games end up being duds.
This wrinkle also gives us two extra games to consider for our weekend parlays. With that said, here’s my parlay card for the first-ever Super Wild Card Weekend!
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Leg 1: Tampa By Buccaneers -Washington Football Team Under 44.5
This is my favorite bet of the weekend and one I would bet all the way down to 44. I have a hard time seeing both teams getting into the 20s in this one.
Both front sevens will control and define this game. Tampa Bay and Washington finished fifth and sixth in sacks, respectively, so expect both units to get home early and often in this one.
The Buccaneers’ offensive line gave up only 22 sacks all season. However, good pass-rushers have found ways to get to Tom Brady. The Saints, Bears, and Atlanta Falcons — a defense that improved as the season went on — sacked Brady nine times in Tampa Bay’s last three games.
Chase Young, Ryan Kerrigan, and Montez Sweat should cause havoc off the edge. If defensive tackle Daron Payne can disrupt up the middle, Brady could be in for a long day.
I’m not sure how Washington puts up more than 17 points in this game, barring any defensive scores. Alex Smith is a tremendous story, and he’s done just enough to help Washington get by. But he’s just nowhere near the efficient quarterback he used to be. Like Brady, Smith is also a statue in the pocket.
Buccaneers defensive coordinator Todd Bowles knows this, and he happens to be one of the league’s blitz-heaviest play-callers. Tampa’s secondary can be exposed, but I don’t expect Smith and the Washington passing game to take advantage. And running the ball probably won’t work either, as Tampa ranked first in the league against the run during the regular season.
Expect a grinder of a game where the Buccaneers start slow but break through in the second half. Washington’s fantastic run comes to an end in a low-scoring loss.
Leg 2: Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I bet on the Seahawks in the second showdown between these teams and was on the right side. However, that was a one-possession game the entire way until they scored a touchdown to make it 20-9 with three minutes left.
Round 3 between these NFC West rivals should be a tight one. Once again, I expect Seattle to prevail.
We learned last week there isn’t a huge difference between Jared Goff and John Wolford. The Los Angeles offense is slightly worse with Wolford under center. But what Wolford lacks as a passer, he makes up for with mobility Goff doesn’t possess. Plus, Goff could be limited if he isn’t fully healed from his thumb injury.
As for the Seahawks, they’ve transformed practically overnight into a conservative, defensive-oriented team. It’s hard to figure out why Russell Wilson and the Seattle passing game has struggled in recent weeks. Part of me even wonders if the Seahawks are playing possum and will unleash Wilson again in the postseason.
Most importantly, Seattle’s defense has progressed into a decent unit. That might not sound great, but it’s a big leap from where they were to begin the season. While the Rams’ offense is generally conservative with a bit of upside, I feel better about Seattle’s offense knowing how explosive Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can be.
I prefer to get this at Seattle -2.5, so keep an eye on Goff’s status before booking this bet. This game is the first leg in our parlay, which means we have the luxury of waiting until closer to kickoff. If Goff goes, I suspect this line will go below three.
Leg 3: Chicago Bears – New Orleans Saints Under 47
This is another game that screams under to me. The Bears made the playoffs by re-establishing their identity as a run-first offense. In his final four games, David Montgomery rushed for 423 yards and five touchdowns.
Chicago’s commitment to the run took the pressure off of the limited Mitchell Trubisky, giving him opportunities to exploit opponents off play-action.
Bad news, Bears fans: That formula likely won’t work against the Saints, who were the fourth-best team against the run during the regular season. Expect the Bears to be stuck behind the chains for most of this game, putting Trubisky at risk of ruining this game with turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Saints’ offense isn’t too explosive. Drew Brees can’t push the ball downfield much anymore. Yes, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are back, and that certainly helps. But against a respectable Bears defense, the Saints should get the bulk of their points off of long drives.
This feels like a low-scoring game that the Saints control most of the way.
Parlay Odds: +578 ($100 bet wins $578)
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.