Who doesn’t love a good parlay? Just hearing the word gives me butterflies. Every Friday this season, I’ll share my parlay picks with you, so we can all hopefully strike it big.
Week 1 is always one of the hardest weeks to hit a parlay because there’s a ton of unknowns. That’s especially true this season. With no preseason games, it’s even harder to have an idea of what these teams will look like in their debuts.
But a little uncertainty won’t stop us from trying. Let’s delve into my 3-team Week 1 parlay, with an optional fourth leg on Monday night. The 3-teamer pays +597, and the 4-teamer pays +1231.
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 1 of the NFL >>
Week 1 NFL Parlay
Leg 1: Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs. New York Jets
This pick is more a fade against the Jets and Adam Gase than an endorsement of the Bills. Truthfully, I think Sam Darnold could become a better quarterback than Josh Allen. But the Bills have done a much better job of building around Allen, while the Jets spent the last two years getting Darnold killed and giving him no weapons to work with.
The Jets now have a competent general manager who rebuilt the offensive line in one offseason. But the unit will need time to gel, especially after the shortened offseason. The Bills racked up 46 sacks last season and could wreak havoc against a unit that’s better, but lacks chemistry.
While I just dragged Josh Allen, I do think he’ll succeed against a Jets defense that’s without its best two players from last season, C.J. Mosley and Jamal Adams. The secondary is a disaster and I expect Stefon Diggs to make a big play or two in his Buffalo debut.
The Bills are the better team on both sides of the ball and should win handily over the under-manned, terribly coached Jets.
Leg 2: Jacksonville Jaguars +8 vs. Indianapolis
Take a deep breath, suppress your instant reaction to vomit, and hear me out. This spread is over-inflated, and it’s all based on narratives.
Everything you hear about Jacksonville is negative. Yes, the recent fire sale proves the team is rebuilding and eyeing Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick in the 2021 draft. But the Jaguars ultimately got rid of a talented, but disgruntled pass rusher and a running back who many claimed to be lazy and problematic in the locker room. The losses of Yannick Ngakoue and Leonard Fournette might not hurt as much as everyone assumes.
Meanwhile, the sentiment in Indianapolis has been mostly positive. The team signed veteran quarterback Philip Rivers and drafted talented tailback, Jonathan Taylor, in the second round of the draft. It’s now the favorite to win the AFC South, which is fair.
While I agree with these perceptions, I don’t agree that Indianapolis is 11 points better than Jacksonville on a neutral field, which is what this line suggests.
Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew put up 295 yards and 3 touchdowns in Jacksonville’s 38-20 win over Indy in last season’s finale. He should find similar success through the air in this year’s opener. The Colts ranked 23rd in pass defense last year and their main addition to the secondary was former Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who struggled mightily last season. Adding DeForest Buckner will help, but the Colts still don’t have a strong pass defense.
On the surface, Rivers seems like an upgrade over last year’s starter, Jacoby Brissett. But it’s fair to wonder if he’s finished. Rivers threw a whopping 20 interceptions last season as his arm strength continues to decline. I have a hard time trusting him, especially as a big road favorite.
One trend that’s also worth mentioning: Indianapolis is 0-5 straight up and against the spread at Jacksonville, including once as a 10-point favorite.
Am I picking the Jaguars to win straight up? No. But I don’t expect them to roll over and die either. I’ll take the points on the divisional home dogs, as gross as it feels.
Leg 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 at New Orleans
Tom Brady hasn’t entered a regular-season game as an underdog since 2015. But I’ll gladly take the three and the hook in what should be a tightly-contested game.
The key to this game will be Tampa’s defense. Last season’s metrics aren’t favorable – the Buccaneers finished 29th in points allowed and 30th in passing defense. But I expect this unit to improve in 2020.
Tampa Bay returns a loaded front seven headlined by linebackers Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Levante David that led the league in rush defense a year ago. It’s the secondary that needs improvement. Second-round pick Antonie Winfield Jr. could make some plays as a rookie. But Tampa will need improved play from cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis if this unit is to reach its full potential.
Brady’s presence will benefit Tampa’s defense, which was constantly put in terrible positions thanks to the departed Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last season. To compare, Brady has thrown 29 interceptions in the last four seasons combined. The Buccaneers might not be as explosive offensively, but they’ll be much more controlled and efficient with Brady at the helm.
Mike Evans’ health will be worth monitoring, as he looks to be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. But Brady will still have Chris Godwin and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard to work with. Michael Thomas will surely get his, but Tampa’s ability to bottle up Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be the key.
And in case you weren’t convinced, here’s one more trend to put the cherry on top: New Orleans is 0-6 against the spread in its last six season openers.
Optional Leg 4: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 at New York Giants
Big Ben is back and he’s going to make an even bigger statement.
I typically don’t endorse betting big road favorites, but I’m making an exception here. The Steelers could overwhelm the Giants on both sides of the ball.
Let’s start with the defense, which should be considered the new-age “Steel Curtain.” Pittsburgh’s defense is the primary reason why I made the Steelers my best bet to win the AFC. The Steelers finished top 5 in points allowed, yards per play allowed, passing defense, takeaways, and sacks last season.
I expect this unit to create a ton of havoc for Daniel Jones, who didn’t exactly protect the football as a rookie. Jones threw 12 picks and fumbled the ball a whopping 18 times. That carelessness isn’t a good recipe against T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Offensively, I’m throwing out most of what I saw from the Steelers without Roethlisberger last season. You can’t take an offense led by Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges seriously. The Giants added James Bradberry to a woeful secondary that finished 28th in pass defense. But New York’s front seven doesn’t have enough talent to beat Pittsburgh’s sturdy offensive line. James Conner should have a solid game.
I haven’t written off Juju Smith-Schuster yet and think he could have a big day out of the slot against a depleted Giants secondary. Watch for a Diontae Johnson coming-out party too.
Carrying this parlay into Monday night might be a bit stressful, but it’ll be worth it.
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