For the Week 10 NFL parlay card, we’re going to change it up.
Picking exclusively picks against the spread and total haven’t worked to this point. This week, we’re going to work an underdog moneyline play into the mix. Let’s get right into the Week 10 parlay:
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 10 of the NFL season >>
Leg 1: Buffalo Bills-Arizona Cardinals Over 56
Kyler Murray vs. Josh Allen. Points will be scored. We obviously know how prolific both of these mobile quarterbacks are. What’s just as important to this over hitting is that both defenses have struggled to stop quarterbacks who can run.
In Arizona’s last two games, they’ve allowed Russell Wilson to run for 84 yards and let rookie Tua Tagovailoa rush for 35 yards in their most recent loss to Miami. On the other side, Buffalo has given up 179 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. Both Allen and Murray should be able to make plays with their legs all day in the desert.
Despite being known for defense throughout Sean McDermott’s tenure, the Bills have struggled defensively this season. They’ve given up the 10th-most points and are allowing 5.8 yards per play. Fortunately, Buffalo’s offense figured things out last week and should be able to pick up the struggling defense yet again.
Buffalo’s biggest weakness defensively is Arizona’s strength offensively. The Cardinals rank second in the league in rushing, while the Bills rank 27th in defending the run. The Cardinals defense ranks 14th against the pass, which isn’t great considering they’ve only faced one truly elite quarterback (Wilson) this season.
The over is 7-2 in Bills games, but only 2-6 in Cardinals games. I expect Arizona to break big plays on the ground, while Allen and the Bills answer back with big plays.
Leg 2: Chicago Bears +138 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins, who is 0-9 in his career on Monday Night Football, is a road favorite this Monday night. That alone should be enough to place a bet on the Bears. But wait, there’s more.
Cousins is 0-3 straight up against the Bears since joining the Vikings. The offense has scored 20, 10, and six points in those three games, respectively. In Cousins’ last meeting against Chicago, the Monsters of the Midway sacked him six times in a 16-6 defeat at Soldier Field.
Okay, I’ll stop ragging on Cousins. We all know the Vikings go as Dalvin Cook goes. Minnesota’s workhorse tailback is on a tear lately, rushing for 369 yards and five touchdowns in his last two games. There’s just one problem, Cook hasn’t rushed for more than 39 yards in his three matchups against Chicago.
The Bears defense hasn’t been stout against the run this season. However, just a week ago the unit limited Derrick Henry to 68 yards on 21 carries. I expect the Bears to have the same success in limiting Cook Monday night. Chicago’s gameplan will be to force Cousins to beat them, which will actually force Cousins into beating himself.
Of course, the prevailing question is how will the Bears actually score points? I’m expecting a maximum effort from Matt Nagy, Nick Foles, and the rest of the Bears offense after three straight weeks of embarrassment. And a matchup against Minnesota’s defense isn’t as daunting as it used to be.
The Vikings rank 26th in total defense and have given up the ninth-most points in the league this season. Minnesota’s pass defense has been the main culprit. The Vikings are giving up 7.4 net yards per pass attempt and only getting pressure on just 19.6% of their opponents’ dropbacks. That’s great news for Foles, who is a statue in the pocket.
Winning this game won’t make Chicago any less of a fraud. But the pieces are in place for the Bears to bounce back at home. Gimme the Bears straight up.
Parlay Odds: +355
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