NFL Parlay Picks: Week 15 (2020)

Woah, it’s already Week 15. Even in a year as wild as 2020 has been, the NFL season always seems to fly by.

That means we’ve only got a few more shots to hit a parlay, so let’s not mince words and dive right into my Week 15 parlay card.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 15 of the NFL >>

Parlay Leg 1: New England Patriots +1 at Miami Dolphins

I know, betting the 2020 version of the Patriots is ugly. But this line opened at +3 and has since gone down to just above a pick. That line movement agrees with my thinking: the Pats have a good chance at winning this game outright.

I’ll be the first to say that Cam Newton is finished. But the Patriots can win despite him. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has turned New England into the run-heaviest team in the NFL. The results are mixed, as New England ranks 11th in net yards per rushing attempt, but ranks 26th in points per game (21.3).

A one-sided offensive approach can work against Miami. The Dolphin’s defense has been stout and incredibly opportunistic with a league-high 25 takeaways. But they aren’t great against the run, allowing 4.6 net yards per rush attempt.

New England’s defense isn’t as good as it’s been in years past. But Bill Belichick has dominated rookie quarterbacks in the past and Tua Tagovailoa won’t be the exception. Tua won’t have Myles Gaskin and might be without Salvon Ahmed, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, and Devante Parker for this game.

The Dolphins have been a nice story, but I think their fall to earth continues in Week 15.

Parlay Leg 2: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Under 46.5

The Chicago Bears are one of the few teams who have contained running back Dalvin Cook. In four games against Chicago, Cook has rushed for 182 yards and one touchdown on 64 rush attempts.

Coincidentally, the Vikings are 1-3 in those four games, with their first win coming this season in the first game at Soldier Field. So long as Akiem Hicks is healthy and on the field, Minnesota might have a tough time running the ball once again.

The Bears lost the first meeting, 19-13, but a lot has changed since that Monday night debacle. Chicago has since turned back to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, and the offense has had – dare I say – shown signs of life. The Bears have scored at least 25 points in each of their last three games after failing to do so in their seven previous games.

However, those three games were against the Packers, Lions, and Texans, the latter two having awful defenses. I have a feeling we’ll see something closer to the old Bears offense in this divisional showdown.

The Bears and Vikings have recently played a ton of tight, low-scoring contests. The Bears and Vikings have combined to score 45 points or fewer in their last seven contests. With both teams contending for a playoff spot, I expect a tightly-played, slow-paced contest.

Parlay Leg 3: New Orleans Saints +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This is one of my favorite Week 15 spots. The Saints are coming off a lousy road loss to Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, the Chiefs just keep winning. But they might be ripe for an upset this week.

First off, the Saints will get Drew Brees back under center. While it’s fair to question how much the future Hall of Fame quarterback has left in the tank, we can all agree he gives the passing game more credibility than it had with Taysom Hill.

Sadly, the Saints won’t have Michael Thomas this week after he was curiously ruled out of the game Friday with a sudden ankle injury. That’s bad news, but not a devastating blow. Kansas City’s defensive weakness is against the run, where they allow 4.7 net yards per attempt. Expect plenty of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray as the Saints attempt to control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.

On the other side of the ball, New Orleans should be able to get pressure on Mahomes without blitzing, which is critical in beating him. The Saints have 36 sacks on the season and have blitzed on just 31.7% of their snaps. If the Saints can generate pressure organically, they’ll have a shot.

New Orleans also has a strong pass defense, ranking fourth in the league with 5.8 net yards per pass attempt allowed this season. The secondary can be a bit of a roller coaster ride when it comes to consistency, but you can bank on getting a grade-A effort out of Marcus Lattimore and co., against Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Like I said before, I like the spot and the matchup. I don’t think the Chiefs are six points better than the Saints on a neutral field. And I’ve just got a feeling the Chiefs are going to drop one.

New Orleans is a remarkable 51-33 ATS after a loss, and 9-4 ATS as a home underdog under Sean Payton. Everything’s pointing to a Saints cover and outright win.

Parlay Odds: +597

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.