We couldn’t get last week’s parlay home last weekend. But I’ve got a feeling about this week’s parlay card. Let’s get straight into it with my Week 5 parlay.
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Leg 1: Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Are the Cleveland Browns actually good? I think this week will go a long way in determining that.
The Browns and Colts enter this game after beating up on a slew of struggling teams. The Colts have won three straight against the Vikings, Jets, and Bears. The Browns have won three in a row against the Bengals, Washington Football Team, and Cowboys.
Both teams rank in the top 4 in rushing attempts, are strong in the trenches, and have decent quarterbacks. The biggest difference is the pass defense. The Colts top the league in passing yards allowed and have picked off a league-high 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, the Browns rank 30th in passing yards allowed and have surrendered 12 touchdowns.
As bad as Cleveland’s secondary has been, I’m not sold that Indianapolis can take advantage. Philip Rivers has been fine, but not outstanding. The Colts are banged up at receiver and don’t have a legit threat in the passing game. T.Y. Hilton has apparently fallen off a cliff, and Indianapolis’ leading receiver is running back Nyheim Hines.
And while many view Indy as a power running team, they’ve actually run the ball effectively, averaging only 3.5 yards per attempt. They could face more tough sledding against a Browns front that’s allowing 3.9 yards per attempt.
This game feels more like a pick ’em to me. Even without Nick Chubb, I expect Cleveland to do just enough on offense while keeping Indy’s offense at bay. The Colts will be without linebacker Darius Leonard and tackle Anthony Castonzo Sunday, which definitely hurts the cause.
I like the Browns to win straight up and move to 4-1. Maybe Cleveland rocks after all?
Leg 2: Washington Football Team +7.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams had really impressed me through the first three weeks of the year, but it looks like the league is catching up to them. After rushing for at least 153 yards in each of their first three games, the Rams only mustered up 58 yards on the ground against an average New York Giants defense.
The L.A. offensive line has seen a bit of a renaissance in 2020 after being one of the worst units in the league a season ago. But I’m curious to see how they’ll hold up against a really good Washington front seven that ranks 4th in the NFL in sacks.
Ron Rivera surprisingly made the switch from Dwayne Haskins to Kyle Allen this week. The difference at quarterback feels negligible, but it will make the preparation a bit trickier for the Rams.
Rivera is familiar with Allen, who went 5-7 in 12 starts under Rivera in Carolina last season. Allen put up numbers, throwing for 3,322 yards and 17 touchdowns. But he’s also an enormous turnover risk and threw 16 interceptions last season. Allen will need to protect the football against Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and a stingy Rams defense.
I’m not buying that the Rams have completely transformed on the offensive line and anticipate a lot of havoc coming Jared Goff’s way, which is never good for the Rams offense. Goff tends to go haywire with pressure in his face, which could lead to a couple of turnovers and advantageous field position for a Washington offense that’ll need all the help it can get.
I like the Football Team to cover in a low-scoring, ugly affair.
Leg 3: Minnesota Vikings +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Yes, I’m going against Russell Wilson and picking Kirk Cousins to cover in primetime. Why? Because the Seahawks can’t help but play one-possession games.
While Russ has been cooking, the Seahawks defense has been getting burnt. Seattle has given up at least 23 points and 415 yards in each of their first four games. Their passing defense ranks dead last in the league in yards allowed.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has put up more than 30 points and 410 yards in each of their last two contests. Say what you want about Cousins, but he’s good enough to have success in this matchup, especially now that Justin Jefferson has emerged alongside Adam Thielen.
The biggest question will be how aggressive Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will be. Picking apart this Seahawks secondary that will be without Jamal Adams is enticing. However, Minnesota’s best offensive weapon is Dalvin Cook. Keeping the ball on the ground isn’t as exciting, but it also keeps Wilson on the sidelines.
I’m trusting Mike Zimmer to figure out some ways to limit Wilson and the Seahawks offense. That’ll be a tall order, as Minnesota’s secondary has been almost as horrendous as Seattle’s. The Vikings have given up the 5th most passing yards in the NFL and have only seven sacks.
The Vikings have enough talent on offense to keep up with Wilson. It also wouldn’t stun me if the Vikings caught the Seahawks looking ahead to their bye week and beat them outright.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.