Can you believe we’re already halfway through the NFL season? And can you believe how close we’ve come to hitting several parlays this season? The close calls stop here.
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 9 of the NFL >>
Without further ado, here’s my Week 9 NFL parlay:
Leg 1: Kansas City Chiefs-Carolina Panthers over 52.5
Taking an over involving Patrick Mahomes is always a safe start to a parlay card. Mahomes is three touchdown passes away from 100 in his career, and he has a great chance to reach that milestone against Carolina.
The Panthers defense plays the most zone coverage in the NFL. They hardly blitz and have only eight sacks on the season. Those factors spell disaster against Mahomes, who will have all day in the pocket to sit back and pick apart zone coverage.
The only thing that might stop Mahomes from reaching 100 TDs is Kansas City’s running game. The Panthers are allowing 4.7 yards per attempt and have given up a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns.
Carolina has a good chance of moving the ball against Kansas City too. Christian McCaffrey is back, which is a huge plus. Meanwhile, Kansas City will be without star defensive tackle Chris Jones, who was placed on the COVID/Reserve list Thursday. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league with Jones in the lineup, and Jones leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
Carolina has enough offensively to put up points. I like the over in what could be a back-and-forth affair.
Leg 2: Arizona Cardinals -4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami is riding plenty of momentum after an emphatic victory over the Los Angeles Rams. But the 28-17 final score is somewhat misleading. Los Angeles outgained Miami 471-145 and the Dolphins had a measly 90 yards passing. Miami feasted on big special teams plays and four takeaways. Here’s a recap of how Miami scored its four touchdowns last week:
- A six-play, 33-yard drive off a Jared Goff interception
- A 78-yard fumble return touchdown
- A punt return touchdown
- A one-yard Myles Gaskin touchdown run after a Jared Goff fumble
That type of performance won’t be replicated against Arizona. Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy approach is a perfect strategy against a statue like Jared Goff. But it spells disaster against mobile passers like Kyler Murray. Murray has the cheat code. Even when you’ve beaten him with scheme, he can kill you with his athleticism. Murray could have a huge day running against an overly-aggressive Dolphins defense.
Speaking of running, Arizona should be able to control this game on the ground. The Cardinals have the third-best rushing offense in the league, while the Dolphins are surrendering 4.9 yards per carry.
And while Tua Tagovailoa is 1-0 as a starter, he makes Miami’s offense worse right now. Miami clearly kept the training wheels on Tua in his debut as a starter, and I don’t imagine we’ll see much more aggressiveness in his second start. The Cardinals blitz on 38.6% of their defensive snaps and will likely stick with that blitz-heavy approach against the rookie.
Unless the Cardinals hand out as many gifts as the Rams did last week, I expect them to jump out to an early lead and overwhelm Tagovailoa with pressure. Arizona should win handily off the bye.
Leg 3: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 51
If you want to get frisky and add the Saints +5.5 to this parlay, I support that. This spread feels too high, considering New Orleans was a 4.5-point favorite at home in the first meeting between these teams.
But I like the under in this game more and think it’s the safer pick. I don’t see many explosive plays happening in this game. Both teams are led by veteran quarterbacks who don’t push the ball downfield often. Drew Brees ranks last among eligible quarterbacks with an average depth of target of only 5.5 yards, while Tom Brady is averaging 8.6 yards.
Neither team is particularly strong running the ball either. The Saints are averaging just 4.2 yards per carry with dynamic tailback Alvin Kamara. Meanwhile, Tampa is averaging just four yards per attempt with its Ronald Jones-Leonard Fournette timeshare. To make matters even harder, both defenses rank top three in rushing yards per attempt allowed.
The other angle supporting this under is the weather. Not only is there a chance of rain, but there’s expected to be winds ranging from 15-to-22 miles per hour in Tampa Sunday night.
Take the under in the rematch between these two NFC contenders.
Parlay odds: +597
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.