Well, that was a fun start, wasn’t it? We had a bunch of thrilling finishes to the early-kickoff games in Week 1, and we ended with an entertaining Broncos-Seahawks game on Monday night.
Oh, and we did pretty well with the Week 1 prop bets.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Well, that was a fun start, wasn’t it? We had a bunch of thrilling finishes to the early-kickoff games in Week 1, and we ended with an entertaining Broncos-Seahawks game on Monday night.
Oh, and we did pretty well with the Week 1 prop bets.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Last week: 5-2
Season record: 5-2
We hit the under on Trey Lance passing yardage - I told you that game was going to be a rainy mess - and hit the over on Jameis Winston passing yardage. We also hit the over on Joe Mixon rushing yardage, the under on Tony Pollard rushing yardage, and the over on A.J. Brown receiving yardage.
We also had two misses, and let me tell you, they were spectacular misses. We had Mike Williams OVER 56.5 receiving yards, and he inexplicably had just 10 receiving yards against the Raiders in a game that Keenan Allen left in the first half with a hamstring injury. We also had Robbie Anderson under 32.5 yards. Anderson erupted for 102 yards.
Hey, if you're going to miss, you may as well miss big.
Now, on to Week 2.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.)
Tom Brady UNDER 276.5 passing yards
Dennis Allen, who's been the Saints' defensive coordinator since 2015 and is now their head coach, has done a pretty good job of scheming against Brady ever since the GOAT's 2020 arrival in Tampa. Brady has failed to hit this number in four of his five games against the Saints the last two years, including a playoff game in January 2021. Brady's yardage totals in those five games: 239, 209, 199, 375, 214. Brady won't have WR Chris Godwin (hamstring). WRs Justin Gage (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) are also less than 100%, as is LT Donovan Smith (elbow). And Saints CB Marshon Lattimore has had Buccaneers WR Mike Evans' number the last couple of years. This number looks too tall for Brady.
Carson Wentz OVER 240.5 passing yards
A.J. Brown came through for us last week, easily hitting the over on his yardage total against the Lions, so let's keep picking on the weak Detroit secondary. Wentz is a more appealing play than any of the Washington receivers because it appears the Commanders now have three good pass-catching options with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson. Why guess at target distribution when we can just bet the over with Wentz and leverage the talents of all three of those receivers? The Lions gave up a league-high 7.6 yards per pass attempt last season and allowed 7.5 yards per attempt in Week 1. As noted here last week, Lions CB Jeffrey Okudah came into the season having allowed 2.28 yards per coverage snap and 12.6 yards per target over his brief career, while Lions CB Amani Oruwariye entered 2022 having allowed 1.20 yards per coverage snap and 9.1 yards per target for his career.
Javonte Williams OVER 59.5 rushing yards
Williams had a modest 7-43-0 rushing line against the Seahawks in Week 1, but he was used extensively in the passing game, catching 11 of 12 targets. Melvin Gordon had a 12-58-0 rushing line in that game, but Williams played 58% of the offensive snaps for the Broncos, while Gordon played 41% of the snaps. The guess here is that we'll continue to see something close to a 60/40 workload split in Williams' favor. That should mean at least 12-15 carries for Williams this week in a game that has the Broncos favored by 10 points over the Texans (i.e., likely a run-friendly game script). No team allowed more rushing yards to opposing RBs last year than Houston, and Jonathan Taylor trampled the Texans for 161 rushing yards last week.
Raheem Mostert UNDER 24.5 rushing yards
Mostert is a part-time player. He played fewer than half of the Dolphins' offensive snaps in Week 1 and had five carries for 16 yards. Good run defenses have been a hallmark of HC John Harbaugh's tenure in Baltimore. Over the last four years, the Ravens have ranked 3rd, 9th, 13th and 3rd in rushing yardage allowed to RBs. I generally don't like betting rushing totals this low, but I think this is a good percentage play.
Cooper Kupp OVER 94.5 receiving yards
Those of you who read this column regularly last season know that over bets on Cooper Kupp's receiving yardage were almost a weekly staple. Those bets paid off handsomely last season, so let's get back on the train. Kupp averaged 114.5 receiving yards a game last season, and he opened 2022 with 13 catches and 128 yards against the Bills. Now he faces a slot-funnel Falcons defense. Atlanta's outside cornerbacks, A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward, are good. Atlanta's other corners, Dee Alford (an undrafted rookie) and Mike Ford (a journeyman), are not. Look for Kupp to smash yet again. (Note: As of Thursday afternoon, the juice on this bet was -120 rather than the standard -115.)
Noah Fant UNDER 22.5 receiving yards
In Week 1, Fant was targeted four times and had three catches for 16 yards. Seahawks QB Geno Smith also targeted TE Will Dissly three times and TE Colby Parkinson two times, so Fant isn't the only game in town for Seattle at tight end. The Seahawks have a tough road matchup against the 49ers in Week 2, facing a San Francisco defense that tied for the second-fewest receiving yards allowed to tight ends in 2021.
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