After an excellent showing during Wild Card Weekend, I had a rough go of it last weekend with my Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) picks. Hopefully, I can redeem myself with my picks for the NFC Championship Game.
Below are my picks for Sunday’s game between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. The previous two meetings this year between these two NFC East rivals produced 13 touchdowns, so we could see some fireworks on Sunday. Interestingly, the home team in each game scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone.
I tracked these bets during the regular season using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.
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NFC Championship Anytime TD Scorers: Commanders vs. Eagles
Washington Commanders Touchdown Pick: Dyami Brown (WR – WAS)
- Anytime TD Odds: +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First Team TD Odds: +850 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +2200 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Washington scored seven touchdowns in the two meetings with Philadelphia during the regular season. Quarterback Jayden Daniels looks anything but a rookie playing in his first postseason. Because of that, there are several viable options here. However, the Eagles allowed a league-low five touchdowns to opposing running backs during the regular season. They also gave up just three rushing scores to enemy quarterbacks.
That caused me to shy away from Brian Robinson Jr. (+200 for an anytime touchdown on FanDuel Sportsbook), Austin Ekeler (+320) and Daniels (+230). Philadelphia also ranked third in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) versus tight ends, which got me off of Zach Ertz (+290). Instead, I am going with wide receiver Dyami Brown, who has emerged as a legitimate threat in the postseason.
In 63 regular season games, Brown had never caught more than four passes in a single game. And in only one of those 63 games, he recorded more than 57 receiving yards. He tied for the team lead with 89 yards and a touchdown while catching all five targets in the Wild Card Round. Brown followed that performance by securing six of his eight targets for a team-high 98 yards in last week’s win over Detroit.
Brown lines up all over the offensive formation, but he will often operate against Darius Slay. Despite not having much regular season success in his career, Brown has gotten the better of the veteran corner in their head-to-head matchups. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown has 92 receiving yards on 30 career snaps in Slay’s coverage. Based on the pricing, I would rather bet on Brown to score than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin’s best anytime touchdown price is +135 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Eagles Touchdown Pick: A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
- Anytime TD Odds: +160 at BetMGM
- First Team TD Odds: +550 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- First TD Odds: +1000 at ESPN Bet
The Philadelphia Eagles scored six touchdowns in the regular season versus the Commanders. Saquon Barkley accounted for four, totaling 348 yards from scrimmage in the process. Undoubtedly, he is the player on the Eagles most likely to score. But that does not make him the best bet. The best price for a Barkley touchdown is -225 on DraftKings Sportsbook. I can’t pay that price. His best first touchdown price is +350 on BetMGM, which is palatable.
However, if you spent $9 on a Barkley anytime touchdown bet and $2 on a first touchdown bet, he would have to score the first touchdown just for you to break even. I do not claim to offer financial advice, but that is not how I would choose to invest. I will go with A.J. Brown instead.
Brown scored a first-quarter touchdown in the last game between these two teams despite Jalen Hurts leaving with a concussion. Brown tied his season high in receptions in that game, catching eight for 97 yards. The Eagles are the best rushing team remaining in the playoffs. However, with quarterback Jalen Hurts dealing with an injury, he may be less likely to run.
More importantly, I expect Washington to dare him to throw to beat them. That is not to say they will limit Barkley and Hurts completely. But I expect them to stack the box and see if Hurts can beat them with his arm. The Commanders play man coverage at a high rate, and Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL versus man coverage. I expect Brown to make his presence felt in this game, including scoring a touchdown.
