The Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites off the bye against the visiting Texans. Houston was outstanding in the Wild Card Round, but going on the road to face Kansas City off a bye is a whole different animal. This is also a rematch, and the Chiefs won somewhat comfortably.
The following four-leg same-game parlay (SGP) leans into the betting expectations. Both teams’ offensive and defensive tendencies were also critical considerations for the forthcoming picks.
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Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Chiefs vs. Texans
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes 225+ Passing Yards (-225)
- Leg 2: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)
- Leg 3: C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Interceptions (-160)
- Leg 4: Travis Kelce 50+ Receiving Yards (-135)
- Leg 5: Marquise Brown 40+ Receiving Yards (-135)
Patrick Mahomes didn’t have a top-shelf season by his standards. Still, according to Pro-Football-Reference, he averaged 245.5 passing yards per game this season, with a median of 261. Mahomes had at least 225 passing yards in 10 out of 16 contests, including passing for 260 against the Texans in Week 16.
Andy Reid also leaned more heavily on Mahomes and the passing attack toward the end of the season. According to RotoViz’s pace app, from Week 10 through Week 17, Kansas City had the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%). From Week 10 through the Wild Card Round, Houston faced a 59% situation-neutral pass rate, tied for the 10th-highest mark.
Additionally, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Houston’s past nine games, they’ve allowed 253.2 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns. Mahomes should succeed and reach at least 225 passing yards against the Texans. FantasyPros projects him for 247.1 passing yards against Houston.
Mahomes should also toss multiple touchdown passes. Kansas City prefers to pass in scoring territory. They’ve had a 58.6% pass rate on 198 plays inside the 20-yard line and a 57.8% pass rate on 90 plays inside the 10-yard line this year. From Week 10 through Week 17, the Chiefs had a 66.3% pass rate on 101 plays inside the 20-yard line and a 73.7% pass rate on 38 plays inside the 10-yard line.
Mahomes’ passing success should flow through Travis Kelce, and Marquise Brown should also chip in. Kelce should benefit immensely from the extended rest from Christmas until Saturday. Since 2022, Kelce has had 78.7, 65.6 and 51.4 receiving yards per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, Kelce had 85.7 receiving yards per game in 2022 and 88.8 in 2023. He’s found a new level during the most critical games, and the same should happen this year. FantasyPros projects Kelce for 51.9 receiving yards against the Texans.
Marquise Brown missed most of the season, suiting up for only two games. Yet, he was a useful ancillary piece with a high target volume in a rotational role. Despite only a 41.7% route participation rate, Brown had 15 targets on 35 routes (0.43 targets per route run), 23.3% first-read percentage, 25.5% air yards share, nine receptions (4.5 per game), 91 receiving yards (45.5 per game) and 2.60 yards per route run. Brown had 45 and 46 receiving yards in those contests, and the former was against the Texans. FantasyPros projects him for 42.1 receiving yards against Houston.
C.J. Stroud will likely be in compromised positions on Saturday. The Texans are 8.5-point underdogs in a hostile outdoor environment. Stroud’s weapons behind Nico Collins are lackluster, at best. Stroud has thrown an interception in three of his previous four games, and he attempted only six passes in an abbreviated start in the outlier. Moreover, Stroud has thrown at least one interception in five of Houston’s seven losses this season. Thus, Stroud is likely to throw an interception if the Chiefs defeat the Texans.
Parlay Odds: +650
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.