We are already a month into the NFL season and another week means a fresh batch of NFL Prop Bets. October is rebound month and it starts this week. I have four prop bets I am feeling great about. But before we move onward and upward, let’s tally up last week.
Week 4 was a less than ideal result for me. My hit was DeVante Parker who cashed the over on 2.5 catches pretty quickly. My misses include Sony Michel who went over 50.5 yards, Marlon Mack who was banged up in a game the Raiders dominated and ol’ Kirk Cousins who completed 27 passes despite not breaking 15 completions in any start all season.
Let’s head back to DraftKings Sportsbook to find the props that can cash this week!
Colt McCoy – Under 199.5 Yards Passing (-130)
The Redskins and Jay Gruden have named Colt McCoy the starter this week against New England. Thus far this season the Patriots defense has been impeccable against a myriad of terrible quarterbacks and Ben Roethlisberger. They are currently allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (181).
For McCoy, it will be his first start since injuring his leg last December against the Philadelphia Eagles. In fact, it will only be his third start since 2015 with the other two coming last year.
We are banking on a journeyman back-up who will surely be rusty playing in an offense that is devoid of playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin who is questionable in this game to struggle to throw the ball. Then you’re telling me he is facing arguably the best Patriots since the early 2000s? Sign me up for a sub-200-yard passing day for McCoy.
Kirk Cousins – Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-106)
Let’s start with the fact that Kirk Cousins has thrown exactly one touchdown in three of his first four games this season. In that fourth game, he threw zero. This has caused frustration with his receivers and issues in the locker room.
Part of me thinks the trend continues this week as Minnesota is a team that wants to run the ball and let the defense do the rest of the work. But, I plan on fading the consensus this week and will target the squeaky wheel.
Last season Cousins had 9 games with multiple touchdown passes. And while I don’t think Cousins is great, I do think he is better than we have seen thus far and that passing game gets some love this week especially if they get in close. A matchup against a Giants secondary that has allowed two of the four quarterbacks they have faced to throw multiple touchdowns should help his cause as well. Take the short price and back Cousins this week.
Ezekiel Elliott – Over 85.5 rushing yards (-112)
This is a prime spot for a massive Ezekiel Elliott game. He is facing a Green Bay defense that has been abysmal against the run. They have allowed over 100 rushing yards to their last three opponents.
The Cowboys are returning home after their offense was a mess a week ago in New Orleans. I expect to see plenty of Elliott as Dallas looks to get their offense back on track. He should have a monster game and is a must-play in Week 5 DFS.
Michael Thomas – Over 6.5 catches (-139)
Speaking of former Ohio State Buckeyes I expect to have a massive game, Michael Thomas should see plenty of work in this spot. He has been a target hog all season for New Orleans, a trend that didn’t stop when Teddy Bridgewater took over under center. He has seen seven-plus targets in every game and nine-plus catches in three of four. Bridgewater has taken Thomas over the 6.5 catches in 2 of the 3 games he played in.
Tampa Bay has been phenomenal against the run thus far this season and should force New Orleans to throw plenty. And against the pass, the Buccaneers have been a flaming dumpster dot gif. Currently, they are allowing over 16 catches and 200 yards receiving. We saw what the Rams wide receivers did a week ago. I expect Thomas, Kamara, and others to do much of the same. Take the over even with the heavy juice.
Good luck in Week 5!