It's Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season, meaning with have two games on Saturday afternoon. The Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the day's first matchup while the Pittsburgh Steelers face the Baltimore Ravens to round out the Saturday slate.
Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.
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Saturday NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans First TD Scorer: Joe Mixon (+200)
Mixon has been the focal point of Houston's offense this season. The star running back missed three games earlier this year with a high ankle sprain. Yet, he leads the team in rushing touchdowns (11) and offensive scores (12). Furthermore, Mixon has accounted for nearly 40% of the Texans' offensive scores despite missing three games. More importantly, he has accounted for the team's first touchdown in six of the past eight contests.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL this year. They have surrendered 63.2 rushing yards per game to running backs, the fewest in the NFL. However, Kansas City has given up eight rushing touchdowns to running backs, including four over the past four weeks. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against the Chiefs has been a rushing one by a running back in back-to-back games.
Kansas City Chiefs First TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+950)
While Travis Kelce is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the team's clear-cut No. 1 tight end, the veteran has struggled in 2024, totaling only two receiving touchdowns. However, Gray has stepped up for Patrick Mahomes and the passing attack. The veteran tight end leads the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns (five) while ranking second to Xavier Worthy in offensive scores. By comparison, he had four receiving touchdowns over his first three years in the league.
Furthermore, Gray has five receiving touchdowns over the past five weeks, including one in the Week 15 win over the Cleveland Browns. More importantly, he had the first Kansas City touchdown in Week 12. Meanwhile, the Texans have given up six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the seventh-most in the NFL. The first touchdown scored against Houston has been by a tight end in three of their past seven games, including by Jonnu Smith last week.
Anytime TD Scorer: Nico Collins (+145)
Unfortunately, C.J. Stroud and the Texans' passing attack hasn't been as impressive as last season, with the offensive line struggling. However, Collins has been one of the top wide receivers in the league. The superstar missed five games because of a hamstring injury. Yet, he ranks 17th in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns. The former Michigan star has had at least one touchdown in 55.6% of the games, including two of the past three.
Last week, Collins only had four receptions for 17 receiving yards in the win over the Miami Dolphins. However, he finished the game with two receiving touchdowns, a season-high. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have forced teams to throw against them because of their elite run defense. Kansas City has surrendered 14 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the 12th-most in the NFL entering Week 16. Don't be surprised if Collins scores the team's only receiving touchdown on Saturday.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers First TD Scorer: Pat Freiermuth (+650)
The Steelers have a 10-4 record, the third-best in the AFC and the sixth-best in the NFL. However, their offense has been far from elite or consistent in 2024. They average 24 points per game, ranking 10th in the league. Furthermore, they haven't scored a touchdown in two games this season, including in Week 11 against the Ravens. Yet, Pittsburgh won both contests. Unfortunately, their offense won't be at full strength against the division rivals.
George Pickens will miss his third straight game because of a hamstring injury. Therefore, Freiermuth will be the Steelers' top option in the passing game. The veteran tight end leads the team in receiving touchdowns (six) and offensive scores. He has found the end zone in three consecutive games, including the first Pittsburgh touchdown last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens have surrendered three touchdowns to tight ends over their past seven contests.
Baltimore Ravens First TD Scorer: Derrick Henry (+230)
While he has cooled off lately, Henry has been on fire this season. The future Hall of Famer has 13 rushing touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL. He leads the Ravens in rushing touchdowns and offensive scores (15). The superstar has accounted for 29.4% of the team's offensive scores, finding the end zone in 71.4% of the contests. More importantly, Henry has had the first Baltimore touchdown in a team-high 42.9% of the games.
Meanwhile, the Steelers held the former Alabama star to only 65 rushing yards in the Week 11 matchup. However, Henry did have the first Ravens touchdown in the game. More importantly, Pittsburgh has surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs over their past nine games, including seven scores over the past six weeks. Furthermore, the first offensive touchdown scored against the Steelers has been by a running back in nine of their past 11 matchups.
Anytime TD Scorer: Mark Andrews (+195)
Many wrote Andrews off for dead earlier this season. The veteran tight end had six receptions for 65 receiving yards over the first month, putting up a goose egg in two of those games. However, he has bounced back after the slow start. Andrews leads the Ravens in receiving touchdowns (eight) while ranking second in offensive scores behind Derrick Henry. More importantly, he has scored all eight touchdowns over the past 10 weeks.
Last week, the star tight end had Baltimore's first touchdown in the win over the New York Giants. Andrews has scored at least one touchdown in three consecutive games and seven of the past nine contests. Meanwhile, the Steelers have surrendered four receiving touchdowns to tight ends, ranking in the middle of the NFL. However, they've struggled with star tight ends lately, including giving up a receiving touchdown to David Njoku two weeks ago.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.