Sunday Night Football features two teams coming out of the bye. However, the Broncos are in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and the Commanders are non-contenders in the NFC playoff race. The favored Broncos should handle their business, and that’s reflected in the following five selections for our Week 13 NFL Sunday Night Football same-game parlay (SGP).
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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Broncos vs. Commanders
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders
- Leg 1: Broncos Moneyline (-270)
- Leg 2: Broncos Team Total Over 20.5 Points (-205)
- Leg 3: RJ Harvey Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Leg 4: RJ Harvey Most Rushing Yards (+125)
- Leg 5: Marcus Mariota 20+ Rushing Yards (-217)
The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites against the outmatched Commanders. Denver has a 9-2 record this season. Their only losses were to the Colts in Week 2 and the Chargers in Week 3, and both teams have winning records at 8-3 and 7-4, respectively.
The Commanders are 3-8, with a -60-point point differential this season. The Broncos have lost only once as a favorite this season, in Week 2 against the Colts. According to SumerSports, the Commanders are 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play this year, and their offense is led by a backup quarterback this week.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are fourth in EPA allowed per play and second in success rate (36.88%) allowed this season, and they’re getting back the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award winner, Pat Surtain II. Washington has lost six games in a row, and they’re unlikely to snap out of their losing streak against Denver.
Washington’s pitiful defense is also unlikely to keep the Broncos to fewer than 20.5 points. They’ve allowed eight of their 11 opponents to score at least 21 points. The exceptions were Week 1 against the Russell Wilson-led Giants, Week 5 against the Chargers and Week 11 against the Dolphins in an international contest.
The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in six out of 11 games this year, including five of their nine victories. Thus, a win for the Broncos should be accompanied by at least 21 points against Washington’s lousy defense.
A positive game script for the Broncos would do wonders for RJ Harvey’s rushing outlook. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Broncos have a 53% rush rate on 200 plays when leading by at least three points, excluding the final two minutes of the first half. Additionally, per the Fantasy Points data suite, the Commanders have faced the sixth-lowest pass rate over expectations (-1.1% PROE) this season.
The Commanders have also struggled mightily against running backs on the ground. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (113.2) to running backs this year. In their last five games, they’ve coughed up 713 rushing yards (142.6 per game) and 5.32 yards per carry to running backs. According to StatHead, 10 running backs have exceeded 50.5 rushing yards in a game against the Commanders this year.
Harvey has spent most of the year as a change-of-pace complement to J.K. Dobbins. The rookie running back had only 30 rushing yards in his only game without Dobbins in Week 11, but he handled 11 of the backfield’s 17 rush attempts (64.7%). After Sean Payton had last week to self-scout, he should get more out of Harvey as a runner in a plus-matchup. FantasyPros projects Harvey to lead the game with 58.1 rushing yards.
Marcus Mariota is once again filling in for Jayden Daniels. Mariota has averaged 31.8 rushing yards per game in his five starts this season, reaching at least 20 rushing yards in all five. He’ll likely drop back often in a negative game script against Denver’s talented defense.
When the Broncos bottle up his pass-catching weapons and get after him with their pass rush, Mariota will likely find himself scrambling. FantasyPros projects the mobile veteran quarterback to rush for 30 yards, and his leg in this parlay for at least 20 rushing yards leaves wiggle room for him to fall short of his projection and still deliver.
Parlay Odds: +415
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.