We have a matchup Sunday night between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Commanders. Millions of dollars will be bet on this game. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's dive into my picks for first team and anytime touchdown scorers.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Week 9 NFL Sunday Night Football Touchdown Scorers Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks First TD Scorer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+310)
After spending the past few years sharing the wide receiver room with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba has had a breakout season as Seattle's top option in the passing game. The former Ohio State star leads the team with four receiving touchdowns in seven games after totaling 10 in 34 contests over his first two years in the NFL. More importantly, he was on fire before the Seahawks' Week 8 bye, scoring at least one touchdown in three consecutive games.
Furthermore, Smith-Njigba has scored the first Seattle touchdown in nearly half of the games this season, including two of the past three before the bye week. Meanwhile, the Commanders' pass defense has been a mess lately. They've surrendered eight receiving touchdowns to wide receivers since Week 1, allowing at least one in all but one contest. More importantly, the touchdown scored against Washington has been by a wide receiver in over half of their matchups.
Washington Commanders First TD Scorer: Zach Ertz (+425)
Unfortunately, the Commanders won't have Terry McLaurin on Sunday night after he re-aggravated a quad injury that forced him to miss four games earlier this year. However, Washington will have Jayden Daniels back under center after he missed last week's contest with a hamstring injury. That's excellent news for Ertz, who has played significantly better with Daniels starting than with Marcus Mariota. The veteran tight end has scored all four of his touchdowns this season in games Daniels started.
Ertz has accounted for half of Daniels' passing touchdowns, scoring at once in all but one game the superstar quarterback started this year. More importantly, three of his four touchdowns were the first score of the game for the Commanders, including in Daniels' last start in Week 7. Meanwhile, the first offensive touchdown scored against the Seahawks has been a passing one in every game this season, including by a tight end twice.
Anytime TD Scorer: AJ Barner (+205)
While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been outstanding for Seattle, the team has lacked a clear-cut No. 2 option in the passing game behind the former Ohio State star. However, Barner has been Sam Darnold's next most reliable weapon behind the superstar wide receiver. He has four receiving touchdowns, tying his career total entering the year, matching Smith-Njigba for the team lead. Furthermore, the young tight end has played well lately, totaling three receiving touchdowns over the past four contests.
More importantly, Barner has played well against teams that struggle to defend tight ends. Thankfully, he faces a banged-up Commanders defense on Sunday night. Washington has surrendered five receiving touchdowns to tight ends, the fifth-most in the NFL this season. Furthermore, they have had no answer for opposing tight ends lately, allowing three receiving touchdowns over the past two weeks, including two to Jake Ferguson in Week 7. Don't be surprised if Barner scores twice on Sunday night.
Anytime TD Scorer: Jeremy McNichols (+550)
This is a bit of a gut call pick, but McNichols could score his second touchdown of the year on Sunday night against the Seahawks. The Commanders have had no luck trying to run the ball the past few weeks, as Jacory Croskey-Merritt has severely struggled. Washington has started to lean on McNichols with the rookie struggling, especially in the passing game. McNichols has seen an uptick in receiving game work, totaling 10 receptions over the past three weeks.
Meanwhile, Seattle has arguably the best run defense in the NFL. They have surrendered only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, the fewest in the league. Furthermore, the Seahawks have given up only two rushing touchdowns to running backs, the second-fewest in the NFL behind the Los Angeles Rams (zero). However, they have struggled to defend pass catchers out of the backfield, allowing the most receptions (47) and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns (two) to running backs.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.