The NFC East is in the spotlight this week. The Eagles will look to bounce back against the Giants from their season’s first loss in Week 5. The following three player props lean heavily into play-calling tendencies, usage and coverage data.
Here are my best NFL Thursday Night Football bets for Week 6’s Giants-Eagles matchup.
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Best Thursday Night Football Week 6 Player Prop Bets
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise specified.
Jaxson Dart Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Jaxson Dart made his first start in Week 4, and Big Blue has ratcheted up its rushing. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Giants have a 59% situation-neutral rush rate on 112 plays in the previous two weeks.
A significant part of their rushing attack was leaning on Dart’s legs. Dart ran 10 times for 54 yards in Week 4 and seven times for 55 yards in Week 5. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, only eight of Dart’s rush attempts since Week 4 were on scrambles, leading to 67 scramble yards. Thus, his other 42 rushing yards were on designed runs.
Still, the Giants are 7.5-point underdogs. Therefore, Dart should have ample opportunities to scramble if the Giants are in a negative game script. The Eagles haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks, but Bo Nix ran three times against them for 22 yards last week, and Patrick Mahomes gashed them for 66 yards on seven rushes. Dart can regress from his average of 54.5 rushing yards per game in two starts and still clear 35.5 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football.
A.J. Brown to Record 1+ Reception in Each Quarter (+240 at Caesars Sportsbook)
A.J. Brown is having a forgettable season. He’s exceeded four receptions only three times in five contests this year, and he’ll need to reach at least four receptions to snag one in every quarter.
Nevertheless, a matchup with the Giants is an ideal spot for Brown to be busy. First, the Giants have a pass-funnel defense, facing the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%) this season. Second, per the data suite at Fantasy Points, New York’s defense plays man coverage at the second-highest rate (42.7%).
Even in an underwhelming year by Brown’s standards, he’s barbecuing man coverage. Brown has an absurd 0.40 targets per route run and 2.40 yards per route run against man coverage this season. As a result, I expect him to be targeted every quarter, likely multiple times, awarding him a path to at least one reception in all four quarters against the Giants.
Saquon Barkley Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at BetRivers)
Big Blue’s pass-funnel defense could lead to Saquon Barkley getting a bit more work in the passing game as a substitute for rush attempts. Fortunately, Barkley has the receiving chops to get the better of his former employer through the air.
Barkley has put up the following receiving stats this season.
- 46.8% route participation rate
- 19 targets (3.8 per game)
- 13.7% target share
- 7.4% first-read rate
- 0.24 target per route run
- 17 receptions (3.4 per game)
- 128 receiving yards (25.6 per game)
- 1.60 yards per route run
In addition, Barkley has registered 0.15 targets per route run and 2.80 yards per route run on 20 routes against man coverage this season. He’s cleared 14.5 receiving yards in back-to-back games and in three out of five games this season. Finally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Giants have permitted 4.60 receptions per game and 30.8 receiving yards to running backs this season. FantasyPros projects Barkley for 17.6 receiving yards against the Giants.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.