Thursday Night Football has frequently featured divisional matchups this year. However, this week is an exception, with an AFC versus NFC battle, featuring the Chargers against the Vikings. Below are my best NFL Thursday Night Football bets for Week 8’s Chargers-Vikings matchup.
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Best Week 8 NFL Thursday Night Football Bets
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise specified.
Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
The Vikings traded for Jordan Mason in the offseason to serve as a bruising complement to Aaron Jones, and he’s punched in four touchdowns this season, all on the ground. All were without Jones, who could return this week.
Nevertheless, Mason is the team’s preferred goal-line back. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Mason has handled 83.3% of Minnesota’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line this season.
Mason has a Charmin-soft matchup this week. Since Week 4, the Chargers have permitted 145.3 rushing yards per game, 5.10 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns. Mason could be busy against Los Angeles’s leaky run defense. In their first game after their Week 6 bye, the Vikings had a 45% situation-neutral rush rate, per RotoViz’s pace app.
In Carson Wentz’s first three starts, the Vikings had only a 33% situation-neutral rush rate. Conversely, the Chargers have faced a 48% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 4, tied for the seventh-highest mark. Mason should have opportunities to gash the Chargers and cash in for at least one touchdown.
Justin Herbert Over 23.5 Completions (+100 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Justin Herbert is slinging it, and Greg Roman is leaning on his quarterback’s arm. According to nfelo, the Chargers are second in pass rate over expectations (+5.6% PROE). Additionally, per RotoViz’s pace app, the Chargers have a 64% situation-neutral pass rate (tied for first) this season and a 63% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 4.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Herbert has put up the following stats this season.
- 304 dropbacks
- 271 pass attempts
- 183 completions
- 67.5% completion rate
- 80.2% adjusted completion rate
- 7.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
Conversely, the Vikings have faced the third-lowest aDOT (6.7 yards) this season. Minnesota has faced Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers, Dillon Gabriel and Jalen Hurts this year, which is notable for the low aDOT. Still, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings have the second-highest blitz rate (38.9%) this year. Thus, it makes intuitive sense for quarterbacks to get the ball out quickly in the short and intermediate area to beat the blitz, supporting the low aDOT against the Vikings.
Herbert has surpassed 23.5 completions in four out of seven games, including three out of four contests at home. He’s averaged 26.1 completions per game this season, with a median of 25. Finally, FantasyPros projects Herbert to complete 23.7 passes against the Vikings.
Keenan Allen Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at BetRivers)
Keenan Allen’s game is aging gracefully. Through seven games in his return to the Chargers, he’s averaged 6.3 receptions per game and 62.1 receiving yards per game. It would be disingenuous to say Allen has picked up where he left off before his season in Chicago.
Nevertheless, Allen’s surface stats and underlying data are eye-catching. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, he has put up the following stats this season:
- 73.2% route participation rate
- 8.7-yard aDOT
- 26.8% air yards share
- 22.9% target share
- 0.28 targets per route run
- 25.1% first-read rate
- 9.0 targets per game
- 44 receptions (6.3 per game)
- 435 receiving yards (62.1 per game)
- 1.92 yards per route run
Allen has surpassed 48.5 receiving yards in five out of seven games this year, with a median of 61. Allen has also done his best work at home, with the following stats in four home contests this year.
- 72.3% route participation rate
- 9.0-yard aDOT
- 28.7% air yards share
- 24.9% target share
- 0.30 targets per route run
- 10.5 targets per game
- 28.8% first-read rate
- 30 receptions (7.5 per game)
- 310 receiving yards (77.5 per game)
- 2.20 Y/RR
Allen has surpassed 48.5 receiving yards in all four home games, and his lowest mark was 58 against the Commanders. He should eclipse 48.5 receiving yards against the Vikings, and that line is a bargain at BetRivers compared to it being as high as 52.5 elsewhere.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.