The Chiefs begin their quest to defend the Super Bowl in the first game of the year against the Lions on “Thursday Night Football.” Kansas City’s whiz quarterback has an appealing prop at PrizePicks, and a dynamic rookie has an eye-catching line for the Lions.
Here are my best PrizePicks player predictions for Week 1, “Thursday Night Football,” Lions vs. Chiefs.
The Chiefs begin their quest to defend the Super Bowl in the first game of the year against the Lions on “Thursday Night Football.” Kansas City’s whiz quarterback has an appealing prop at PrizePicks, and a dynamic rookie has an eye-catching line for the Lions.
Here are my best PrizePicks player predictions for Week 1, “Thursday Night Football,” Lions vs. Chiefs.
Best TNF Week 1 PrizePicks Player Predictions
Patrick Mahomes had a brilliant 2022 season that culminated in winning the NFL MVP Award and the Super Bowl. He led the NFL in passing yards per game (308.8). The rocket-armed quarterback exceeded 286.5 passing yards in 11 of 17 games in the regular season last year. Mahomes’s median outcome was 328 passing yards in 2022.
Mahomes has posted his jaw-dropping passing numbers in a pass-first offense. According to the nfelo app, the Chiefs were first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) in each of the previous three seasons.
The defending MVP has a favorable matchup and has thrived in season openers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Lions allowed the third-most passing yards per game (245.8) in 2022. They added talent to their defense in free agency and the NFL Draft. Yet, they have a far climb to average. Detroit will have its hands full against a quarterback who’s smashed in Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 games:
• 5-0 record
• 1,542 yards
• 18 TDs
• 0 INTs
• 133.9 passer rating
Next up: @Lions pic.twitter.com/V5BLoU0NBp
- KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) August 31, 2023
Mahomes passing line opened at 298.5 passing yards before cratering to 286.5 in the wake of Travis Kelce hyperextending his knee and suffering a bone bruise in practice on Tuesday. Kelce hasn’t been ruled out yet. Instead, he has a questionable designation for the contest. Since I still like Mahomes’s chances to carve up Detroit’s secondary even if Kelce is ruled out, now is the time to hop on his prop since it will skyrocket closer to 300 yards again if Kelce suits up.
Jahymr Gibbs might be busy as a pass-catcher in his first regular season game if the game script goes according to the betting odds. Fortunately, he has top-shelf receiving chops. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Gibbs was targeted on 21.2 percent of his routes at Alabama last season. He parlayed his hefty passing-game usage into 3.7 receptions and 37.0 receiving yards per game.
The rookie has an outstanding matchup for tapping into his receiving production on Thursday night. The Chiefs yielded the fourth-most receiving yards per game (47.4) to running backs in the regular season last year. If the Lions are in a negative game script, Gibbs should easily surpass 30.5 receiving yards, steamed up from his opening line of 26.5 receiving yards. Yet, if the Lions pull the upset, Gibbs’s receiving chops will probably have a hand in their success. So, the rookie’s over for receiving yards is an alluring selection at PrizePicks, even after climbing four yards since the open.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
