The NFL is finally back in action on Thursday night. I'm heading the PrizePicks route for the season opener between the Ravens and the Chiefs. Below I've narrowed in on three player predictions for this AFC Championship re-match. Let's dive into the picks. Good luck this season.
Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday at 8:20 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
The NFL is finally back in action on Thursday night. I'm heading the PrizePicks route for the season opener between the Ravens and the Chiefs. Below I've narrowed in on three player predictions for this AFC Championship re-match. Let's dive into the picks. Good luck this season.
Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday at 8:20 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO.
One of the more intriguing transactions this offseason was the Ravens bringing in Derrick Henry on a two-year, $16 million contract. The now-30-year-old racked up 1,167 rushing yards last season, which was second in the NFL. However, he was also first in the league with 280 carries, so his 4.2 yards per carry average was lower than 150th. Henry eclipsed this total of 64.5 yards in just nine of his 17 games last season.
I think the aging running back will stay under 64.5 yards in the opener. For starters, I don't think the Ravens are going to win this game. I expect the Chiefs to take care of business at home, and honestly, I won't be surprised if they win by double digits. If Baltimore's trailing in this game, they will likely be airing the ball out, rather than handing it off to Henry for three yards and a cloud of dust.
Furthermore, Baltimore endured quite a bit of turnover with their offensive line, having moved on from three of last year's starters - both guards and their right tackle. The question marks surrounding the unit are fair, especially as they're tasked with a respectable Kansas City defense that conceded 113.0 rushing yards per game last season (16th). Let's take Henry and less than 64.5 rushing yards in the opener.
Building on my theory above, I'm expecting Baltimore to have to pass the ball quite a bit on Thursday night. Heck, if offensive coordinator Todd Monken opts for his game plan from the AFC Championship (a.k.a. abandon the run game completely), we'll see a ton of Lamar Jackson through the air. Jackson went 20-of-37 (54.1%) in that contest, adding a touchdown and an interception.
I'll run it back with Jackson to throw a pick against Kansas City's defense. The Chiefs ranked just 27th in interceptions (eight) last year, but they were third in hurry% (9.8%). Theoretically, they should be able to put the pressure on and bait Jackson into forcing interception-type passes. Jackson hasn't fared well against Steve Spagnuolo's defense in the past, as he's 1-3 against the Chiefs in his career, throwing two interceptions and accumulating a 56.2% completion rate. Spagnuolo has this guy figured out, so I think it's worth a shot to back his defense to intercept the reigning MVP.
In addition to losing three of their offensive linemen, the Ravens also saw defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald depart to take Seattle's head coaching job. Cornerback Ronald Darby (Jaguars), safety Geno Stone (Bengals) and linebacker Patrick Queen (Steelers) also moved on from the league's best defense (16.2 points allowed per game).
Now the Ravens are tasked with trying to stop back-to-back Super Bowl-winning quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has an interesting stable of receivers, including first-round pick Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and the returning JuJu Smith-Schuster. Of course, he also has future first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce at his disposal as well.
Mahomes exceeded 26 pass completions in eight of his final 16 games last year, including amassing 30 completions in the AFC Championship. Finally, it's worth noting Andy Reid does use the short-passing game as an extension of the run game, so that should help accumulate a few easy completions. Let's back Mahomes to clear 26 completions on Thursday night.
