One of the most fun NFL bets out there is the Anytime Touchdown (ATD) wager. You simply pick a player to score and collect when he crosses the goal line. For the record, only the player who scores is credited with a touchdown in this market. Quarterbacks do not get credit for passing touchdowns.
This market can be a volatile one, so price shopping across multiple sportsbooks is essential to maximizing profits. I will outline some examples below. Also, note that these prices are subject to change between now and Sunday kickoff. If a price dips significantly, there is a point at which it may become a stay-away. You need to hit 50 percent of +100 wagers to break even, whereas you need to hit 60 percent of -150 wagers to do so. Use your judgment before placing any wagers.
Because of the volatility involved, I would not go overboard in terms of exposure. I am going to track all of these as half-unit (0.5U) plays. 80 percent of the risk will be on a player's ATD bets. The other 20 percent will be on his First Touchdown (FTD) bets. For example, if my total bankroll is $2,000 and my unit size is $20, I would bet $8 on the ATD side and $2 on the FTD side. Adjust as you see fit based on your bankroll and personal limits. Here are all of my top Anytime TD scorer prop bets picks for NFL Week 1. Below we dive into my favorite Anytime TD scorer prop bets for Cardinals vs. Bills.
Best NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets: Cardinals vs. Bills
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the QB who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.
Cardinals vs. Bills
Josh Allen
- Anytime TD Odds: -105 at BetMGM
- First TD Odds: +600 at BetMGM
I know I must sound like a broken record, but price shopping should always be of paramount importance. This Week 1 ATD bet is just another example. Josh Allen is listed at -105 at BetMGM to score a touchdown. The same bet on BetRivers Sportsbook is -186. If you use my hypothetical $8 bet price, an Allen touchdown would net you $7.62 on MGM but just $4.30 on BetRivers. Now increase the bet size by X amount, or run the same bet X number of times, and you begin to see what wild discrepancies can result from settling for any old price.
As for the bet itself, it is so difficult to bet against Josh Allen scoring a touchdown. I know it is not as sexy as some of the longer shots on the board, but Allen is just so consistent. And when Buffalo shifted to a more run-based offensive after a midseason change at offensive coordinator, Allen was the primary beneficiary. He ran for 11 scores in nine games (including playoffs) with Joe Brady calling the plays. Allen will face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona is expected to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. Last year, they allowed five rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks.
