NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Week 1 Favorites (2022)

Greetings, my fellow prop bet enthusiasts.

For those of you who weren't around last season, every week I'll be writing about a half-dozen or so player props that I like. For what it's worth, I'm betting these props myself. If my recommendations in a given week fail miserably, feel free to heap scorn upon me, but realize that I will have already been punished by having my wallet lightened.

So, how did I do last season? Not bad.

2021 record: 58-41

Let's see if we can launch a new season of player-prop wagering on a positive note. Here are my favorite player props for Week 1.

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings

Trey Lance UNDER 204.5 passing yards

In the fantasy realm, I am an avid Trey Lance enthusiast. I think he's a great investment for fantasy. And generally, I'm not going to be betting many unders for QB passing yardage against the Bears this season. Chicago's pass defense is apt to be gruesome. But Lance didn't perform especially well in training camp, and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan might be conservative with his Week 1 playcalling as a result. The Niners are 7-point road favorites, after all, and one way to fritter this game away would be to take a lot of foolish chances. San Francisco could be without TE George Kittle (groin), which certainly wouldn't help Lance's passing outlook. And perhaps most important, the forecast is predicting rain in Chicago on gameday, with the potential for heavy rainfall. In fact, I expect this total to drop as the reality of Sunday's forecast begins to dawn on bettors, but I would still bet the under here even if the total dipped as low as 195.5 or so.

Greetings, my fellow prop bet enthusiasts.

For those of you who weren't around last season, every week I'll be writing about a half-dozen or so player props that I like. For what it's worth, I'm betting these props myself. If my recommendations in a given week fail miserably, feel free to heap scorn upon me, but realize that I will have already been punished by having my wallet lightened.

So, how did I do last season? Not bad.

2021 record: 58-41

Let's see if we can launch a new season of player-prop wagering on a positive note. Here are my favorite player props for Week 1.

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings

Trey Lance UNDER 204.5 passing yards

In the fantasy realm, I am an avid Trey Lance enthusiast. I think he's a great investment for fantasy. And generally, I'm not going to be betting many unders for QB passing yardage against the Bears this season. Chicago's pass defense is apt to be gruesome. But Lance didn't perform especially well in training camp, and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan might be conservative with his Week 1 playcalling as a result. The Niners are 7-point road favorites, after all, and one way to fritter this game away would be to take a lot of foolish chances. San Francisco could be without TE George Kittle (groin), which certainly wouldn't help Lance's passing outlook. And perhaps most important, the forecast is predicting rain in Chicago on gameday, with the potential for heavy rainfall. In fact, I expect this total to drop as the reality of Sunday's forecast begins to dawn on bettors, but I would still bet the under here even if the total dipped as low as 195.5 or so.

Jameis Winston OVER 226.5 passing yards

You might recall that the Saints opened the 2021 season with some extremely conservative playcalling. Winston averaged only 21.5 pass attempts in his first four games, topping out at 23 pass attempts. But then the reins were loosened a bit, with Winston throwing 30 and 35 passes in Games 5 and 6 before tearing his ACL in Game 7. But aside from RB Alvin Kamara, the Saints' pass catchers were collectively awful last year. Marquez Callaway led the team in targets with 84. Deonte Harty was second among the Saints' WRs with 59. Yikes. The team has since signed Jarvis Landry and spent a first-round draft pick on Chris Olave. Prolific WR Michael Thomas is back, too. Well, maybe he's back. Thomas is over his foot injury but is dealing with a hammy issue (though he reportedly took part in a team walkthrough on Monday. The Saints face a Falcons defense that gave up an average of 239.9 passing yards per game last year. I like the over here, though I can forgive you for staying away of Thomas is ruled out.

Joe Mixon OVER 70.5 rushing yards

The Steelers' run defense was bad last year. How bad? To use a clinical term, it was hot garbage juice. Pittsburgh yielded 120.8 rushing yards per game, more than any other team except the Houston Texans. (And in fairness to the Texans, they were in negative game scripts more often than the Steelers, so at least they have an excuse.) In two games against the Steelers last year, Mixon had 18-90-0 and 28-165-2 rushing. And that was behind a mediocre offensive line. The Bengals have since made considerable upgrades to that unit, while the Steelers addressed their leaky run defense by (checks notes) drafting an overaged one-year-wonder QB in the first round. I'm banging the over on Mixon here.

Tony Pollard UNDER 30.5 rushing yards

I'm generally a Pollard fan, but not this week. It's tough to run on Tampa Bay. The Bucs allowed the fewest rushing attempts and the fewest rushing yards in the league last year. Opponents sometimes don’t even bother trying to establish the run against DT Vita Vea, LB Lavonte David and friends. When the Cowboys faced the Buccaneers in the 2021 Thursday-night opener, Ezekiel Elliott played 70 offensive snaps and ran 11 times for 33 yards. He likely played so many snaps because the Cowboys like him as a pass blocker and determined that the only way to beat the Bucs is through the air. Pollard played only 20 snaps in that game and had three carries for 11 yards. It's easy to see Pollard playing a minimal role as a runner yet again.

A.J. Brown OVER 64.5 yards

My boss, Matthew Freedman, likes A.J. Brown this week, so I probably should, too. As Freedman notes, Brown averages an eye-popping 10.2 yards per target for his career. Lions CB Jeffrey Okudah has allowed 2.28 yards per coverage snap and 12.6 yards per target over his brief career, while Lions CB Amani Oruwariye has allowed 1.20 yards per coverage snap and 9.1 yards per target for his career. And wouldn't you think the Eagles would want Brown to be heavily involved in his first game with the team?

Mike Williams OVER 56.5 yards

Through the first five games of 2021, Williams had 51 targets, 31 catches, 471 yards and six touchdowns, but then he tweaked his knee and wasn't right for the next six weeks or so. The last time Williams played a real game, it was the 2021 regular-season finale against the Raiders, and he had 9-119-1 on 17 targets. Williams is a mismatch for either of the Raiders' outside cornerbacks, Rock Ya-Sin and Anthony Averett.

Robbie Anderson UNDER 32.5 yards

A chance to fade a guy I consider to be a bad player? Yes, please. Anderson averaged 9.8 yards per catch and 4.7 yards per target last season, catching only 48.2% of the balls that came his way last season. And mind you, that was with exceptional pass-catching RB Christian McCaffrey out for most of the year. CMC is back, D.J. Moore is going to get plenty of looks, too, and Anderson is up against a Browns defense brimming with young talent at cornerback - Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Greg Newsome.